South Australian Forecast (issued Wednesday 24th September)

Best Days: South Coast Friday (Mid into the afternoon), South Coast Saturday, South Coast in protected locations Monday through Wednesday

Recap

A distant W/SW groundswell came in at 1ft across the Mid Coast yesterday morning before building to 1-1.5ft into the afternoon as winds backed off and conditions became glassy.

The South Coast was clean and small all day with inconsistent 2ft sets at Middleton and better 3ft waves out at Waits and Parsons.

This morning the swell was still holding in at 1-1.5ft on the Mid, while the South Coast looked slower on the backside of the swell.

This week and weekend (Sep 25 - 28)

Give tomorrow a miss as the swell will be small and conditions average across both coasts with a moderate but easing S/SW tending SW breeze.

Friday is looking great though as a new long-range SW groundswell fills in, generated in the Southern Indian Ocean south-west of WA, with a weakening front from the progression currently passing under the Bight.

This swell should build tomorrow afternoon and peak Friday to an inconsistent 1-2ft on the Mid and 3-4ft at Middleton with 4-6ft sets at Waits. Winds will be best for the South Coast but improving on the Mid with a light NW tending variable breeze. This should create glassy fun waves on the Mid after lunch.

Saturday will be the day of the swell down South though under fresh and gusty and warm N'ly winds as the swell eases from 3-4ft along the Middleton to Goolwa stretch and 5ft at Waits. The Mid Coast will be choppy and average with the northerly wind.

Sunday will be poor with early strong to gale-force N'ly winds, creating very tricky conditions with a small leftover swell down South, while a W'ly change through the day will kick up a poor 1-2ft of windswell across the Mid through the afternoon.

Next week onwards (Sep 29 onwards)

As touched on last update, the outlook for early next week is much more active with a couple of strong W/SW-SW groundswells due across the state as a strengthening node (peak) of the Long Wave Trough finally moves in to a favourable position for us, pushing through the Bight Sunday and Monday.

With this we'll see a vigorous polar front steered from south-west of WA up through the Bight towards us and then over us Sunday afternoon/evening.

The models are still a little divergent on the make up of this frontal progression, but all of them have winds reaching the severe-gale-force range over large and broad areas of ocean.

What we should see Monday is a stormy and solid W/SW swell across the Mid Coast with easing W'ly winds, coming in at around 3ft. The South Coast should see the W/SW swell building Monday with a better and larger SW swell Tuesday and with winds from the W/NW on the former and W/NW to SW on the later, protected spots will be the go.

With the current model divergence though, we'll look at the timing, sizes and local winds in more detail on Friday.