Building swells, biggest Thursday, cleanest Friday

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

South Australian Forecast (issued Monday 8th September)

Best Days: Wednesday for keen surfers on both coasts, early Thursday down South, Friday both coasts, Saturday morning down South

Recap

The South Coast offered good fun waves all weekend at Waits and Parsons with a fun smallish swell and offshore winds. The Mid Coast was best on Saturday with a tiny 1-1.5ft wave pulsing with the tide under favourable winds.

Today the swell is bottoming out under fresh to strong offshore winds down South, with exposed spots the only real option for a wave.

This week (Sep 9 - 12)

Tomorrow will be worth giving a miss across both coasts with a tiny swell down South under fresh to strong N/NW tending W/NW winds.

A new W'ly swell is due across the Mid Coast but the westerly winds will create poor conditions with waves to 2ft.

Into Wednesday and more so Thursday a couple of stronger and larger W/SW groundswells are due, owing to a strong node of the Long Wave Trough moving in from across WA, through the Bight.

This will bring two separate and vigorous frontal systems with it, the first being quite north in latitude and only really impacting the Mid Coast, kicking up solid but semi-stormy 3ft waves Wednesday. The acute W'ly direction will limit the South Coast to a small and inconsistent 2ft at Middleton with 3ft+ sets at Waits and Parsons. Protected spots will be the only option though with a fresh and gusty W/NW breeze.

Of greater importance is the secondary polar frontal system, firing up south-west of WA and projecting a fetch of severe-gale to sub-storm-force W/SW winds towards Victoria.

This system will move a little too fast than ideal but should still generate a large and powerful W/SW groundswell for the Mid (coming in a touch more SW down South). 3-4ft sets are due across the Mid, with Middleton coming in at 6ft through the day Thursday with bigger 8ft bombs at Waits and Parsons.

Winds will only be favourable for a short period Thursday morning with an early W'ly around Victor giving way to a SW change.

Friday looks great across both coasts as the swell eases with variable tending locally offshore winds and an easing 2-3ft of swell on the Mid and easing 5-6ft sets at Middleton with the odd 8ft bomb likely to still be in the mix at Waits.

This weekend onwards (Sep 13 onwards)

The swell will continue to ease through the weekend, but be slowed by the arrival of a reinforcing SW groundswell Saturday afternoon. Conditions will be great down South with a light morning offshore Saturday before a weak change moves through, and then poor S/SW to S/SE winds on Sunday.

Longer term a strong and powerful but inconsistent medium sized W/SW groundswell is due Monday, generated in the Southern Indian Ocean, but we'll look at this in more detail Wednesday.

Comments

maddogmorley's picture
maddogmorley's picture
maddogmorley Tuesday, 9 Sep 2014 at 7:44pm

Got some time off at the moment Craig and keen to hit the road on Thurs for a week or so.

I'm in 2 minds whether to go to Cactus or somewhere else - do you think Cactus will be too big from this Fri into next week?

Winds look good but a bit worried about the size. Not up for 8ft Caves and Cactus with too much swell can be average.

Waddya reckon?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 9 Sep 2014 at 7:59pm

I had a similar period earlier this year, but surfing the right was my objective.

Had it epic 6-8ft first day and then didn't drop below 4-6ft for a week, offshore every morning.

As you've said though, when it's this solid the left is usually too big, closing out a bit and harder work. I had fun surfs out there in the arvos, but you had to work around the tides and pulses of size a little.

It's not ideal if you're not looking to surf the right every day at around 6ft, and the rip out there gets you after a few days, paddling constantly!

So with that in mind, I reckon YP would be a better bet, lots of options through the period with great winds for all breaks at some stage.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 9 Sep 2014 at 8:01pm

PS it'll be biggest that Thursday and Friday, so if you do head over there, maybe stop on the way at the left point to have a more mellow surf.

maddogmorley's picture
maddogmorley's picture
maddogmorley Tuesday, 9 Sep 2014 at 8:26pm

Cheers Craig - geez it's a tough call.....and your post has me in 2 minds....mostly due to the crowd factor so I've got another question....

Are you thinking that the right will be 6ft most of the time from say Fri thru Wed or you reckon it will be bigger than that? If only 6ft it might be worth the trip as usually the left is a coupla foot smaller. But if you reckon the right's gonna be 6-8ft or bigger then YP it is....

Normally it's not too hard to call and when I look at bouyweather the numbers are not that big so I think it will be fine but then I look at those big red blobs coming over on the WAM's and it looks too big!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 9 Sep 2014 at 8:31pm

Yeah, it'll probably be in that 4-6ft range from Saturday through Tuesday, bigger Friday and solid 8ft, then 5-6ft+ prob Wednesday. Our forecasts are pretty good for the right.