Nias, Mentawai, South Sumatra forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Thu 30th Oct)

Best Days: Every day over the coming period

This weekend through Wednesday (Oct 31 – Nov 5)

A fun but inconsistent pulse of S/SW groundswell has filled in today and with light winds from the E/SE, conditions have been fun across most breaks.

We should see today's swell back off through tomorrow ahead of one final similar pulsed swell to today across the region on Saturday. This should provide inconsistent 4-5ft+ sets across exposed breaks in the Ments before easing back through Sunday and further into Monday and Tuesday, bottoming out Wednesday morning.

Winds in general will remain light and variable besides Monday when a fresher SE'ly trade is due to blow up before easing off into Tuesday. South Sumatra should see lighter E/SE trades tomorrow and Saturday before picking up from Sunday and persisting all next week.

Next Thursday onwards (Nov 6 onwards)

Our better pulses of groundswell into the second half of next week are still on track with an amplification of the Long Wave Trough moving through the Southern Indian Ocean due to steer a couple of vigorous cold fronts through our southern and south-western swell windows from tomorrow through until early next week.

The first S/SW swell due later Wednesday, peaking Thursday will be generated by a broad polar front pushing above the Heard Island region over the coming days.

This will be then followed by a secondary stronger but more distant system, developing south-east of South Africa and Madagascar, producing a reinforcing swell for Saturday.

The first swell will be S/SW in direction, with the second being SW, but we should see both come in at similar sized across exposed breaks in the Ments to 5-6ft Thursday and then 5-6ft+ Saturday.

Winds should remain favourable with weak SE trades, but we'll confirm this Tuesday. Beyond this there's nothing significant at all across the region, so try and plan around the swell pulses due from later Wednesday next week.

16 day Mentawai forecast graph
16 day Nias forecast graph
16 day South Sumatra forecast graph