Nias, Mentawai, South Sumatra forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Thu 2nd Oct)

Best Days: Saturday onwards at exposed breaks

Friday through Monday (Oct 3 - 6)

We're seeing an easing trend across the islands and fresh SE trades are limiting surfing options to smaller more protected spots across the region.

This easing trend will continue through tomorrow as fresh SE winds (strong around South Sumatra) persist with inconsistent 3-5ft sets at exposed south facing breaks in the Ments.

A new long-range and inconsistent S/SW groundswell is due on Saturday but we're only looking at inconsistent 4-6ft waves at exposed spots in the Ments during the morning before easing through the day. Winds should become lighter from the SE through Saturday and weaker again into Sunday.

Later Sunday and more so Monday out last decent pulse of swell for about a week is expected across the islands, generated by a relatively weak but favourably tracking polar front from the Heard Island region, north-east towards Eastern Indonesia.

We should see a fun S/SW groundswell arriving from this source later Sunday and peaking Monday to the 6ft range across the Ments, with the odd bigger set possible around South Sumatra both late Sunday and early Monday.

Winds are expected to be generally light from the SE-S/SE Monday, strong in South Sumatra from the E/SE.

Next Tuesday onwards (Sep 7 onwards)

Monday's swell is expected to ease through Tuesday and besides a background and inconsistent S/SW groundswell for Wednesday afternoon/Thursday morning, there's nothing significant on the cards at all until the week starting to 13th of October.

On this date we may see a medium-large sized S/SW groundswell impacting the region, but the swell looks to be better aligned for Eastern Indonesia. We'll review this on Tuesday though.

16 day Mentawai forecast graph
16 day Nias forecast graph
16 day South Sumatra forecast graph