Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 20th February)

This week through next (Feb 21 - 28)

Our new pulse of S/SW groundswell due into yesterday afternoon came in nicely with it easing off slowly through today as winds increase out of the W/SW.

Winds will remain moderate to fresh out of the W/NW to WSW tomorrow before easing and tending variable offshore from the weekend, with variable afternoon sea breezes.

Swell wise, an inconsistent background swell is due Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning, easing into early next week.

As touched on in Tuesday’s notes, the next noticeable increase in swell is due Wednesday afternoon and Thursday, generated by a strong, distant low that’s currently south-east of South Africa.

A tight fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds will generate a moderate + sized pulse of inconsistent SW groundswell that should build slowly through Wednesday afternoon and likely peak Thursday.

Following this, we may see a small-moderate sized mid-period S/SW swell for next weekend, but we’ll look at this closer next week. 

In the Mentawais, we’re seeing easing levels of S/SW groundswell, with the background SW swell for the weekend halting this trend.

The long-range SW groundswell from the low currently south-east of South Africa is due on Wednesday, peaking later before easing slowly Thursday and winds look favourable and mostly variable, tending NW at times across southern locations from the weekend.

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Maldives:

Easing levels of S/SE groundswell are being seen across the central and northern atolls, while the southern atolls should see a fun sized, inconsistent S/SW groundswell building later today, peaking tomorrow morning. This will then be followed by a secondary, similar sized pulse on Saturday afternoon/evening and into Sunday morning.

The best swell for the period is due later Monday but more so Tuesday morning, generated by the low south-east of South Africa. Moderate + sized surf is due off this system.

There’s then nothing of significance due into the middle to end of the week with the SE trade-swell also drying up.

We may see some new S/SE trade-swell developing into the first week of March, but more on this next week.

Eastern Indonesia:

Smaller surf tomorrow.

Small-moderate sized, inconsistent SW groundswell building Saturday, peaking Sunday to 3-5ft across exposed breaks.

Moderate sized, inconsistent SW groundswell for later Wednesday, peaking Thursday to 5-6ft, easing Friday.

Mod-fresh W/NW tending W/SW winds tomorrow, variable offshore each morning from the weekend with variable sea breezes.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Easing surf tomorrow.

Small-moderate sized, inconsistent SW groundswell building Saturday, peaking Sunday to 4-5ft across exposed breaks.

Moderate + sized SW groundswell for next Wednesday afternoon and Thursday to 5-6ft across exposed breaks.

Variable winds, possibly tending NW at times across southern locations from the weekend.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Easing S/SE groundswell over the coming days.

Small to moderate sized, inconsistent S/SW groundswell for this afternoon and tomorrow to 4ft+ on the southern atolls.

Secondary similar sized pulse of inconsistent S/SW groundswell Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning on the southern atolls.

Moderate sized S/SW groundswell for next Tuesday to 4-6ft on the southern atolls.

Light E/NE-NE winds across northern and central locations, freshening a little mid-next week. More variable N winds to the south.