Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 15th October)

This week through next (Oct 16 - 25)

Good levels of swell through the weekend have backed off a touch into the new week, though reinforcing pulses are continuing to provide good sized surf today.

This is just the lemon next to the pie, with our much expected, large, long-period SW-S/SW groundswell due to start filling in through tomorrow.

The swell which was discussed all of last week looks on track to deliver one of the strongest pulses of swell for the season, with satellite observations (left - ignore the XL) confirming a sustained fetch of storm-force winds aimed through our south-western and southern swell windows late last week.

Since, the low has weakened to the south-west of Western Australia, with the swell now heading northwards through the Indian Ocean.

We should see the long-period forerunners arriving tomorrow morning ahead of some large sets into the afternoon, with a peak likely into Thursday morning.

Winds for this swell are a little dicey and not reliable trades with them tending S/SW-SW through the day through tomorrow and Thursday, back to the S/SE on Friday. Each morning should see variable offshore breezes.

The swell should ease slowly into Friday and the weekend while tending more south in direction, with a low point due Monday morning. Weak SE trades should also kick back in through this period before going more south again next week.

The next pulse of energy will be inconsistent and originating from a polar low that’s currently weakening just west of the Heard Island region.

Before weakening, a good fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds were generated, with an inconsistent, moderate + sized SW groundswell due to build Monday afternoon, peaking through Tuesday. The models are incorrectly combining swells and over-forecasting the size on this one.

Otherwise, a slow moving and strong low firing up towards Western Australia from Sunday through early next week should generate a better, more consistent and larger S/SW groundswell for Saturday the 26th. More on this Thursday.

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Maldives: The region should be seeing the large, long-period S’ly groundswell from the significant low in the Southern Ocean filling in today, with a slow easing trend due tomorrow, further into the end of the week.

Our source of SE trade-swell is slowly drying up and this will also result in the swell fading from this direction over the coming week, though a final intensification over the coming days will generate a final pulse of S/SE swell for Saturday, easing into early next week.

The next noticeable pulse of swell is due out of the S’th on Sunday, generated by the strong polar low that was to the west of the Heard Island region. This looks moderate in size, easing into next week, with some SE trade-swell due to build again mid-late next week. More on this Thursday. 

The current, fresh to strong westerly winds will persist most of the week, easing into the weekend and becoming more variable out of the south next week.

Eastern Indonesia:

Large, strong, long-period SW groundswell building tomorrow, peaking overnight/Thursday morning, reaching 10ft+ across exposed breaks at its peak (12ft bombs likely).

Swell slowly easing into the end of the week/weekend.

Moderate + sized, inconsistent SW groundswell building later Monday, peaking Wednesday to an inconsistent 6ft.

Variable winds each morning over the coming days, tending S/SW-SW tomorrow and Thursday, S/SE Friday. Weak SE trades on the weekend, back to the S’th next week.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Large, powerful S/SW groundswell filling in tomorrow, reaching 10ft across exposed breaks during the afternoon, easing slowly Thursday.

Moderate + sized S/SW groundswell building Monday afternoon, peaking early Tuesday to 6ft+ across exposed breaks, easing thereafter.

Mod-fresh E/SE tending SE winds across southern locations tomorrow and Thursday (variable to the north). Weaker S/SE-SE winds Friday across southern locations, lingering through the weekend and early next week (lighter and more variable to the north).

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Large S’ly groundswell building today, reaching 6-8ft across the southern atolls into the afternoon (smaller Male), easing slowly tomorrow.

Easing SE trade-swell this week, with a small to moderate sized pulse of S/SE energy for Saturday to 3-4ft across the southern atolls (smaller Male).

Moderate + sized S’ly groundswell Sunday to 4-6ft across the southern atolls (smaller Male).

Easing swells into next week.

Fresh to strong W’ly winds, easing slowly on the weekend, more variable from the S next week.