Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 1st October)

This week through next (Oct 2 - 11)

Inconsistent levels of fun sized SW groundswell are currently in the water, though a slow decline in size is being seen today, with it due to drop further into tomorrow morning.

Later in the day but more so Thursday, a secondary pulse of slightly stronger but still inconsistent, long-range SW groundswell is due and this should provide decent sized sets when they come.

This energy is due to ease into Friday morning ahead of our large S/SW groundswell later in the day but more so Saturday.

Now, looking at the evolution of the swell generating storm, and the main change from last week is that it’s forming a little further east, isn’t as strong and also doesn’t quite project as far north.

In saying this we’re still expected to see strong to gale-force S/SW winds projected north-eastwards towards Indonesia producing a large mid-period S/SW swell, while embedded severe-gale to storm-force S/SW winds will generate some larger, stronger S’ly groundswell energy.

The mid-period stuff is due to arrive later Friday ahead of the more S’ly groundswell for Saturday.

Owing to the south angle expect smaller waves far east, while Western Indonesia will also miss out on a bit of size and a later arrival of the S’ly energy late Saturday, easing Sunday morning.

Longer term, smaller levels of background mid-period S/SW swell and SW groundswell are due to pad out next week, with the best being in the water Tuesday/Wednesday.

More on this Thursday.

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Maldives: A mix of S’ly groundswell and S/SE trade-swell are peaking across the region, with both due to ease a little into tomorrow.

We should see further pulses of moderate sized S/SE trade-swell through the coming days owing to an intensification of strong SE winds south of us.

This should kick the swell back up through Wednesday, with a secondary stronger kick on Thursday/Friday, easing slowly into the weekend (more so from Sunday) as the swell generating fetch evaporates from Friday.

The low forming off Western Australia looks a little less favourable for swell production across our regions, but in saying that we should see radial spread bringing some small to moderate sized, inconsistent S/SE groundswell energy for later next Monday but more so Tuesday.

Otherwise, a large S’ly groundswell is likely later next week from a strong polar low firing up under South Afria later this week. More on this Thursday.

Eastern Indonesia:

Moderate + sized, inconsistent SW groundswell arriving tomorrow afternoon, building towards 6ft across exposed breaks later, holding a similar size Thursday.

Large mix of mid-period S/SW swell building later Friday, with a S'ly groundswell in the mix for Saturday with sets to 8ft+ across exposed breaks (possibly 10ft cleanups).

Easing swell into Sunday, with some inconsistent background SW groundswell and mid-period energy Tuesday/Wednesday to 4-5ft+.

Weak E/SE-SE trades, variable offshore winds each morning.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Moderate + sized inconsistent S/SW groundswell building later today, peaking tomorrow to 6ft across exposed breaks, easing slowly Thursday.

Mod-large sized S/SW swell for later Friday, peaking Saturday to 6ft to occ 8ft across exposed breaks, with a reinforcing S'ly groundswell Sunday morning to a similar size.

Small-mod sized, inconsistent SW groundswell for Tuesday afternoon/Wednesday morning to 4-5ft.

Variable winds.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Easing S'ly groundswell tomorrow and S/SE-SE trade-swell.

Building S/SE trade-swell through Thursday, strongest Friday and to 4-5ft (smaller Male), easing slowly from Sunday. 

Small-moderate sized, inconsistent S/SE groundswell for later Monday/Tuesday to 3-4ft.

Moderate W/SW-SW winds tomorrow, lighter Thursday, increasing a liitle from Friday into the weekend.