Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 13th August)

This week through next (Aug 14 - 23)

Friday and Saturday’s large, reinforcing S/SW swell came in nicely with some spots receiving more size than others due to the south direction, with the swell easing through Sunday, further yesterday morning.

Later yesterday and more so today we’ve got our new pulse of large SW groundswell in the water, with a secondary pulse due this afternoon, easing tomorrow.

A reinforcing pulse of S/SW swell is then due Thursday afternoon and Friday morning, generated by a trailing frontal system on the backside of strong, northward protruding frontal system linked to today’s swells, and this should boost wave heights back to the large size range before easing on the weekend.

Into next week we’ve got back to back pulses of large SW groundswell due, with a third on the cards for the following week.

This will be thanks to a flurry of strong storms spawning off South Africa, with the first due to form today just to the south-east of Madagascar.

A small low should generate a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds while tracking east, with the fetch tending more S/SW once it gets to a position south-west of Western Australia.

This will see a large, long-period SW tending S/SW groundswell developing with the forerunners arriving Sunday, building through the day ahead of a peak Monday when the more southerly component fills in.

We’ve then got a rolling Southern Ocean storm moving in from South Africa later this week, with multiple fetches of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW-SW winds due to project through our medium-long range swell windows, weakening once approaching Heard Island.

This will generate a less consistent but again, large SW groundswell for next Thursday/Friday.

Longer term more activity firing up during next week and beyond could generate larger groundswells for the week starting the 26th. More on this next update.

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In the Maldives, the surf kicked back up through Sunday afternoon and into yesterday with a mix of strong S’ly groundswell and more consistent, S/SE trade-swell signal.

The groundswell will ease today and tomorrow as the S/SE trade-swell persists thanks to strengthening SE trades to our south.

These trades will persist and expand east this week, while a tropical depression looks to form within the flow generating small intensifications.

This will continue to pump out moderate + sized levels of SE trade-swell through this weekend and early next week, tending more S/SE through later next week.

There’ll also be good pulses of S’ly groundswell in the mix from the storms spawning off South Africa, with the first due on the weekend, with a larger pulse for Tuesday/Wednesday.

Eastern Indonesia:

Large SW groundswell this morning, with a secondary pulse for the afternoon, reaching 8ft across exposed breaks.

Reinforcing S/SW groundswell Thursday afternoon/Friday morning to 6ft to occasionally 8ft, easing through the weekend.

Large, inconsistent SW groundswell building later Sunday, peaking Monday with a large S/SW swell also in the mix to 8-10ft across exposed breaks.

Large, less consistent SW groundswell for Thursday/Friday to 8-10ft across exposed breaks.

Fresh to strong E/SE-SE trades over the coming days, easing later this week, and remaining moderate SE-S/SE into next week. Light, variable, local offshore winds each morning.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Large SW groundswell peaking this morning to 8ft+ across the exposed breaks, easing tomorrow and Thursday.

Reinforcing S/SW groundswell later Thursday and Friday morning to 6ft.

Large SW groundswell building Sunday, reaching 6-8ft into the evening, with a reinforcing S/SW groundswell Monday to a similar size, easing Tuesday.

Large, less consistent SW groundswell building Wednesday, peaking Thursday morning to 8-10ft across exposed breaks.

Strong S/SE-SE trades across southern locations this week, (lighter across northern locations), a little weaker into the weekend and early next week, strengthening again from Wednesday.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Easing S’ly groundswell tomorrow from 3ft across the southern atolls.

Moderate + sized S/SE trade-swell to 4-5ft+ across exposed breaks today and tomorrow, easing a touch Thursday.

Moderate + sized SE trade-swell building Sunday to 4-5ft+ across exposed breaks, holding Monday, easing a little through the week.

Small-moderate sized S’ly groundswell for Sunday/Monday to 3ft across south magnets.

Larger S’ly groundswell for later Monday, peaking Tuesday to 4-6ft on the southern atolls, easing Wednesday.

Strong W/NW-NW winds across northern and central locations, weaker to the south. Winds easing a touch through the weekend and next week.