Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 6th August)

This week through next (Aug 7 - 16)

The surf is at a low point but we should see our large, inconsistent SW groundswell filling in slowly but gradually during tomorrow, strongest on dark and into early Thursday morning.

The source was a strong low that spawned off South Africa, and in its wake a smaller, weaker system has generated a reinforcing S/SW swell for later Friday and early Saturday that looks to come in around a similar size at its peak before easing into the weekend.

We then focus our attention to the multi-staged frontal progression forming later this week in the southern Indian Ocean.

Back to back fetches of gales projecting favourably towards Indonesia should generate a large, consistent SW groundswell for Tuesday/Wednesday next week. The peak is a little hard to nail down at the moment.

The size looks similar if not a touch better than the coming day’s swell but with more consistency. There’s also a chance for an upgrade so check back Thursday for the latest.

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Over in the Maldives, the large swell from the low off South Africa should have filled in later yesterday with a peak this morning, easing into this afternoon.

This swell will continue to ease all week, slowed by a reinforcing moderate sized pulse Thursday, with small levels of background SE trade-swell in the mix.

The next flurry of activity moving through the Indian Ocean should produce another large pulse of S’ly groundswell for Sunday/Monday, followed by a renewal of robust S/SE trade-swell thanks to a great, expanding fetch of E/SE-SE trades to out south and south-east from the weekend.

Lighter local winds should also open up plenty of options so it’s an active couple of weeks ahead.

Eastern Indonesia:

Large, long-period SW groundswell building tomorrow, reaching 8ft on the sets by dark, similar Thursday morning.

Large, reinforcing S/SW groundswell for later Friday, easing Saturday, coming in at 8ft on the sets across the magnets.

Large, consistent SW groundswell for next Tuesday reaching 8ft into the afternoon, easing Wednesday from a similar size.

Fresh to strong E/SE-SE trades over the coming days, easing slowly from the weekend, with lighter, more variable winds each morning.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Large SW groundswell for tomorrow to 8ft+, easing Thursday.

Reinforcing large S/SW swell Friday afternoon to 6-8ft, easing through the weekend.

Large SW groundswell building next Monday, peaking Tuesday to 8ft across the exposed breaks, easing Wednesday and Thursday.

Moderate to fresh S/SE-SE winds across southern locations most of the period (strong Thursday and next week), lighter across northern locations.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Large S’ly groundswell easing from 6-8ft across the southern atolls today, further into the week.

Reinforcing S’ly groundswell Thursday to 3-5ft across the southern atolls, easing Friday.

Small SE trade-swell this week to 2ft+ across exposed breaks.

Moderate + sized S’ly groundswell building Sunday to 4-5ft across the southern atolls, easing Monday from a similar size.

Moderate + sized S/SE trade-swell building Sunday, holding next week to 4-5ft+ across exposed breaks. 

Moderate W/NW-NW winds across northern and central locations this week, more variable to the south.

Light winds on the weekend across northern and central locations, strengthening a little through next week.