Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 1st August)

This week through next (Aug 2 - 9)

Our large, long-period S/SW groundswell is currently filling in, with it due to peak this afternoon/evening before easing slowly tomorrow, further Saturday morning.

A reinforcing but weaker mid-period S/SW should arrive Saturday afternoon and hold into Sunday morning, boostin wave heights though not to the size seen during today.

It’ll then be down, down, down with the swell bottoming out on Tuesday.

We then look at our large, long-period SW groundswell due into Wednesday/Thursday, with the low linked to it currently spawning off South Africa.

It’s due to generate a great fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds with embedded storm-force winds, producing a large but inconsistent SW groundswell that should build strongly Wednesday, peaking overnight and easing Thursday.

Weaker, trailing frontal activity should generate some reinforcing swell for next weekend but below the size of the initial pulse.

Following this, the week starting the 12th looks active with back to back large pulses of SW groundswell. More on this next Tuesday.

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In the Maldives, we should see building levels of SE trade-swell across the region tomorrow, holding through the weekend thanks to a restrengthening of the trades to our south-east.

The energy looks a bit smaller and only moderate in size now, peaking through tomorrow afternoon/Saturday before easing Sunday and further into next week.

We’ll then see S’ly groundswell start to dominate the region, biggest across the southern atolls.

The first pulse of energy is due tomorrow out of the S/SE, peaking through the afternoon and easing Saturday, while a larger S’ly groundswell pulse from the low off South Africa is due to build Monday, peaking Tuesday morning.

Further pulses of moderate sized S’ly swell energy are then due next week from the weaker, trailing frontal energy.

Eastern Indonesia:

Large S/SW groundswell building strongly today, reaching 10ft later across exposed breaks, easing tomorrow.

Reinforcing mod-large, mid-period S/SW swell for Saturday afternoon and early Sunday to 6ft+, easing into early next week.

Large, long-period SW groundswell building Wednesday, reaching 8ft on the sets by dark, similar Thursday morning.

Moderate to fresh E/SE-SE trades (weaker over the coming days), with variable winds each morning.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Large S/SW groundswell today to 8ft across exposed breaks, easing into tomorrow and further Saturday.

Reinforcing S’ly swell for later Saturday and Sunday morning to 4-6ft.

Large SW groundswell for Wednesday to 8ft+, easing Thursday.

Reinforcing large SW swell Friday to 6-8ft.

Fresh to strong S/SE-SE winds across southern locations most of the period, lighter across northern locations.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

SE trade-swell building tomorrow, reaching 3-5ft, holding Saturday, easing slowly from Sunday and more through next week.

Building S/SE groundswell tomorrow to 4-5t across the southern atolls into the afternoon, easing Saturday.

Large S’ly groundswell building Monday to 6-8ft across the southern atolls later, easing from a similar size Tuesday.

New S’ly groundswell for Thursday/Friday to 6ft on the southern atolls.

Moderate W/NW-W winds across central and northern atolls, S/SE-SE to the south tomorrow, E/SE Saturday and variable Sunday.

W/NW-NW winds continuing across northern and central locations next week, more variable to the south.