Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 27th June)

This week through next (Jun 28 - Jul 5)

A fun spike of swell was seen the past two days, with it backing off, leaving an inconsistent SW groundswell for tomorrow across exposed breaks.

We then look at the mid-period S/SW swell due across the region on the weekend and it looks like the models are underselling it a bit.

The source is a healthy mid-latitude low that’s off the Western Australian coast, with various surges of strong to near gale-force S/SW-SW winds generating a moderate to large sized swell that is due to arrive later Saturday but peak through Sunday, easing into Monday and Tuesday.

As the swell eases Monday/Tuesday, some background SW groundswell should maintain moderate sized surf, though inconsistent.

We then look towards the larger pulses of SW groundswell due later in the week, generated by a strong Southern Ocean frontal progression over the coming days.

The progression looks healthy but a little disjointed with fetches of gale to severe-gale W/SW-SW winds due to generate an initial moderate to large sized SW groundswell Wednesday, while a stronger, follow up low should produce some larger S/SW groundswell for Thursday. At this stage it looks to be around 8ft but check back next week for updates.

E/SE-SE trades are also expected to strengthen later next week, easing off thereafter.

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A slight easing of SE-S/SE trade-swell has been seen across the Maldives region thanks to the relaxing of the swell generating fetch through the Indian Ocean but over the coming days we’ll see the trades kick up again, generating plenty of swell for the weekend and early-mid next week, backing off later week.

The low off Western Australia is still expected to generate a less consistent pulse of mid-period SE swell for Monday, moderate in size.

Looking at the Southern Ocean activity, and the initial frontal systems are due to generate some moderate + sized levels of S’ly groundswell, arriving Tuesday but persisting most of the week and likely biggest later Wednesday and Thursday morning.

Eastern Indonesia:

Inconsistent, background SW groundswell Friday to 3-4ft+ across the magnets.

Moderate sized + mid-period S/SW swells building Saturday, peaking Sunday to the 6ft range across the magnets, easing Monday.

Inconsistent mid-period SW swell for Mon/Tues to 4-5ft.

Moderate to large SW groundswell for Wednesday to 6ft+, with a larger S/SW groundswell for Thursday/Friday to 8ft.

Moderate to fresh E/SE-SE trades, stronger later next week. Variable winds each morning.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Inconsistent, background S/SW groundswell for later today and tomorrow to 4-5ft.

Moderate + sized mid-period S swell building later Saturday, peaking Sunday to 6ft across exposed breaks.

Moderate to large SW groundswell for Wednesday to 6ft+, with a larger S/SW groundswell for Thursday/Friday to 8ft on the sets.

Variable winds, freshening from the E/SE-SE across southern locations Sunday and later next week.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Moderate to large levels of S/SE-SE trade-swell over the coming days to 4-6ft, easing slowly over the weekend.

Inconsistent mid-period S/SE swell for Monday to 4ft+.

Moderate + sized S’ly groundswell for Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday to 4-5ft+ across the southern atolls.

New SE trade-swell Tuesday/Wednesday to 4-5ft+, easing later in the week.

Larger S’ly groundswell for later Wednesday and Thursday morning to 4-6ft across the southern atolls.

Moderate W/SW-SW winds, weaker S’ly across southern locations. 

Variable winds Sunday, tending S-S/SE, persisting Monday.

W/SW-SW winds mid-late week.