Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 13th June)

This week through next (Jun 14 - 21)

The surf’s been pumping the past few days with the arrival of our oversized S/SW groundswell through Tuesday, holding yesterday morning and then easing back into today.

Nias on the cook for the Nias Pro

We’ll see the size continuing to ease into tomorrow and Saturday morning, with an inconsistent but moderate sized, SW groundswell into later Saturday, peaking Sunday.

We’ll then a see a less consistent but longer-period SW groundswell arriving Sunday afternoon, peaking into Monday, but at the same time, a larger mid-period SW swell is due to fill in.

This mid-period looks good and consistent with a strong, broad frontal progression that’s been moving north of the Heard Island region the last couple of days being the source of energy.

We should see large surf developing through the day Monday, holding Tuesday morning and then easing slowly through Wednesday ahead of a more noticeable drop into the end of the week.

Longer term, moderate pulses of swell are due into the following weekend and week but not to the size of the coming swells. So make the most of the coming energy.

----------------------------------------------

Over in the Maldives we’ve got moderate-large sized levels of S/SE trade-swell that are due to persist over the coming days and into next week while clocking a little more SE in direction.

The energy is originating from a healthy and drawn out fetch of strong E/SE-SE trades throughout the Indian Ocean, with a slightly drop in size due from about Tuesday next week, but not below 3-5ft.

S’ly groundswell seen in the water today will be replaced by some better S’ly groundswell on the weekend, building Saturday and peaking Sunday.

The easing trend will be slowed through Monday and Tuesday by a moderate + sized reinforcing S/SE swell generated by the frontal progression currently moving through the southern Indian Ocean, with the SE trade energy taking dominance later in the week.

Eastern Indonesia:

S/SW swell continuing to ease into tomorrow and Saturday.

Inconsistent, background SW groundswell arriving later Saturday, peaking Sunday to 4-5ft on the magnets.

Inconsistent, long-range SW groundswell mixed in with mid-period energy building Monday, reaching the 6ft to occasionally 8ft across the magnets, easing slowly Tuesday and more so Wednesday.

Moderate E/SE-SE trades, lighter and more variable each morning. Strengthening trades from Monday into next week.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Easing S/SW swell tomorrow.

Inconsistent, background SW groundswell building Saturday and holding Sunday to 4-5ft+ on the magnets.

Inconsistent, long-range SW groundswell mixed in with mid-period energy building later Sunday but peaking Monday, reaching the 6ft to occasionally 8ft range on the magnets, easing slowly Tuesday and further Wednesday.

Variable winds, tending SE and freshening across southern locations through mid-late next week.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Moderate + sized SE trade-swell for tomorrow and the weekend to 4-6ft, easing slightly next week. Though not below 3-5ft.

Inconsistent S’ly groundswell building Saturday, peaking Sunday to 4-5ft across the southern atolls, smaller to the north.

Reinforcing S/SE swell for Monday/Tuesday to 4-5ft across the southern atolls.

Moderate to fresh W/SW winds, weaker to the south.

Winds weakening and tending S/SW-S next week with strengthening W/SW winds possible later in the week.