Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 11th June)

This week through next (Jun 12 - 21)

The weekend’s large pulse of inconsistent groundswell eased back into yesterday, but today we’ve got our oversized S/SW swell on the build, with it expected to deliver large, consistent surf into late today and tomorrow morning.

We’ll see this swell slowly ease over the coming week with the next increase in size due later Saturday but more so Sunday ahead of some larger swell into early-mid next week.

Sunday’s inconsistent groundswell only looks moderate in size, but a healthy frontal progression moving through the Southern Ocean, north and north-east of the Heard Island region over the coming days should produce some larger, mid-period SW swell energy into Monday afternoon and more so Tuesday/Wednesday.

There’s also expected to be a distant, long-period signal in the water Monday, but the models are incorrectly combining this with Sunday's swell and over-forecasting the size.

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The Maldives have seen a jam packed period of swell from the south and south-east, with the trend continuing this period.

Moderate + levels of S/SE trade-swell are due to tend more SE in direction this week and into the weekend and next week owing to the fetch of E/SE trades migrating from south of the region to a position more east.

Ebbs and pulses are due over the coming fortnight, strongest this week and into early next week before easing a little mid-late next week as the trades relax.

A large pulse of S’ly groundswell is due to fill in today across the southern atolls, peaking overnight and easing tomorrow.

Besides another background S'ly groundswell Thursday, the next pulse of noticeable S’ly groundswell is due on the weekend, generated by a strong though distant storm to the south of South Africa over the weekend. It’ll be inconsistent and building through Saturday ahead of a peak Sunday, easing thereafter.

Most of next week will then be dominated by the SE trade-swell energy but we’ll have a closer look at this Thursday.

Eastern Indonesia:

Oversized S/SW groundswell building today, peaking later and into Wednesday morning to 8-10ft, easing slowly into the end of the week.

Inconsistent, background SW groundswell later Saturday and Sunday to 4-5ft on the magnets.

Inconsistent, long-range SW groundswell mixed in with mid-period energy building Monday, reaching the 6ft range into the afternoon, holding Tuesday and Wednesday, then easing. Possible rare bigger set in the mix at times.

Moderate E/SE-SE trades, lighter and more variable each morning. Freshening trades from Sunday afternoon into next week.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Oversized S/SW groundswell building today to 8-10ft, easing slowly tomorrow and into the end of the week.

Inconsistent, background SW groundswell building Saturday and holding Sunday to 4-5ft+ on the magnets.

Inconsistent, long-range SW groundswell mixed in with mid-period energy building later Sunday but peaking Monday, reaching the 6ft range (odd bigger one at magnets), holding Tuesday, easing slowly Wednesday.

Variable winds, tending S/SE-SE across southern locations through next week.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Moderate + sized S/SE trade-swell building Tuesday/Wednesday, peaking to 4-6ft, easing a touch after.

Moderate + sized SE trade-swell for later in the week and weekend to 4-6ft, easing slowly next week.

Large sized S’ly groundswell today to 6ft across the southern atolls, smaller to the north, easing tomorrow

Smaller, background S’ly groundswell for Thursday to 3-5ft across the southern atolls.

Inconsistent S’ly groundswell building Saturday, peaking Sunday to 4-5ft across the southern atolls, smaller to the north.

Moderate to fresh W/SW winds, weaker and more S’ly to the south this week, fresher SW across southern locations on the weekend.