Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 11th April)

This week through next (Apr 12 - 19)

Down, down, down.

Background levels of inconsistent mid-period S/SW swell are due to hold tomorrow morning, but from the afternoon through the weekend and into early-mid next week, there’s nothing major on the cards at all for our region.

We then look to the activity firing up to the east of South Africa and south of Madagascar.

Currently an initial strong front is generating a fetch of SW gales in our far swell window, with a low due to form, spawning off additional fetches of gales rotating around the back of it.

This is the best case scenario for swell generation from such a far distance, with a prolonged, pulsey run of moderate + SW groundswell due later next week.

The swell should arrive in the Mentawais on Thursday, peaking Friday and then easing slowly Saturday, with it due to arrive later across eastern Indonesia, not showing until Friday/Saturday, then easing Sunday.

Following this some reinforcing, more consistent mid-period SW swell is due the following Tuesday/Wednesday but we’ll review this on Tuesday next week.

Looking at the Maldives and a small pulse of background S’ly groundswell for today is due to ease tomorrow, with the SE trade-swell also easing.

Into the weekend, the first pulse of S/SW groundswell from the South African region should arrive, building Sunday afternoon and then easing into Monday.

This easing trend will be temporary, with the larger swell from the slow moving low due to build Tuesday afternoon but peak Wednesday, easing slowly into the end of the week.

Otherwise, background levels of SE trade-swell look minimal and on the lower end of the scale thanks to weak trades through the Indian Ocean. This looks to change near the end of the month, but more on this Tuesday.

Eastern Indonesia:

Inconsistent background S/SW swells to 4ft on the exposed breaks tomorrow morning, fading into the weekend.

Inconsistent, moderate + sized, SW groundswell arriving late Thursday, peaking Friday to a slow 4-6ft, holding Saturday, easing Sunday.

Weak E/SE-SE trades, variable each morning and then freshening later next week.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Small, background S/SW swell tomorrow, fading on the weekend.

Moderate + sized, inconsistent SW groundswell building Thursday to 5-6ft, holding Friday, easing slowly Saturday and Sunday.

Variable winds across northern locations, with weak E/SE-SE trades to the south tomorrow, variable on the weekend.

Variable winds early next week, tending W/NW-NW on Tuesday, NW on Wednesday, becoming variable Thursday.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Easing S’ly swell from 3-4ft on the southern atolls tomorrow morning.

Slight increase in SE trade-swell Sunday afternoon to 3ft+, easing into next week and holding 2-3ft.

S’ly groundswell arriving Sunday afternoon, kicking to 4ft on the southern atolls, easing from a similar sice Monday morning.

Larger S’ly groundswell due next Tuesday afternoon, peaking Wednesday to 6ft+ across the southern atolls, easing slowly thereafter.

Winds tending S-SW across southern locations tomorrow, variable to the north. W/SW-SW winds to the south Saturday, W tending N to the north.

Light W winds to the south Sunday, E/NE-NE to the north, similar Monday but freshening to the north.

S-S/SE winds Tuesday, becoming variable Wednesday and NW Thursday/Friday.