Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 9th April)

This week through next (Apr 10 - 19)

A mix of background mid-period S/SW swell energy and S-S/SE swell from Tropical Cyclone Olga are dominating the region today and tomorrow, with the swell from Olga due to dissipate from tomorrow.

This will leave smallish background levels of S/SW swell for the rest of the week in the 4ft range across the magnets, easing slowly through the weekend and further into next week, becoming tiny to flat.

This will be thanks to a blocking pattern setting up in the Indian Ocean with no significant swell generating storms expected in our normal swell windows.

The next source of activity will be a series of storms firing up directly south and south-east of South Africa/Madagascar over the coming days.

This will be in our far south-western swell window, with various fetches of W/SW-SW gales due to generate some inconsistent, moderate sized groundswell for next Friday/Saturday. More on this in the coming updates.

Looking at the Maldives, and the recent fun levels of SE trade-swell and S’ly groundswell are due to ease over the coming days.

A small background S’ly groundswell is due into Thursday afternoon, easing Friday.

We’ll then look at strengthening and broadening trades firing up through the Indian Ocean over the coming week and this should set in motion the next episode of SE trade-swell, building slowly into the weekend but more so next week.

Across the southern atolls, larger levels of S’ly groundswell are due from the activity off South Africa and Madagascar, with the first, smallest pulse of energy due Sunday afternoon. Larger levels of groundswell are then due from later Tuesday through the rest of next week.

Eastern Indonesia:

Inconsistent background S/SW swells to 4ft on the exposed breaks this week. S-S/SE swell also in the mix today, easing tomorrow.

Moderate sized, inconsistent SW groundswell for next Friday/Saturday.

Variable winds over the coming days, with weak E/SE-SE trades kicking in from Thursday afternoon, persisting next week.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Small, mid-period S/SW swells this week.

Moderate + sized, inconsistent SW groundswell building next Thursday, peaking Friday morning.

Variable winds tomorrow, freshening from the S/SE-SE from Wednesday, easing into the weekend.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Slowly easing SE trade-swell from 3ft+ across exposed breaks tomorrow.

Small, background S’ly groundswell for late Thursday and Friday morning to 3-4ft on the southern atolls.

Mix of building S’ly swell and SE trade-swell on the weekend to 3ft+.

S’ly groundswell to 3-4ft on the southern atolls Monday morning.

Larger S’ly groundswell due next Tuesday/Wednesday in the 6ft range across the southern atolls.

Weak E/NE-NE winds tomorrow and Thursday, variable Friday (tending S/SW-SW across southern locations). Weak SW winds on the weekend, variable early next week.