Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 9th January)

This week through next (Jan 10 - 19)

The weekend’s inconsistent SW groundswell reportedly came in well with it pulsing through Saturday afternoon/evening, holding Sunday morning before easing into Monday.

A secondary pulse of SW swell was due late yesterday, peaking today with a touch more size expected across the region. The source was again distant, being a fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds drawn out to the south-east of South Africa.

This swell is due to start easing slowly through tomorrow, though reinforcing pulses of energy will soften this trend with wave heights on the magnets not expected to really get below 4ft.

The next pulse of energy is due later Friday, peaking Saturday. This swell is building across Western Australia today, generated by a fetch of strong W/SW winds north of the Heard Island region late last week.

It’ll be inconsistent but hopefully build back to 4-5ft+ across the eastern Indonesian magnets later Friday, easing from a similar size Saturday, smaller Sunday, though slowed again by some reinforcing levels of mid-period S/SW swell.

An uptick in size on Tuesday is incorrectly combining swell energy, with a small, tight fetch of polar W/SW gales generated on the tail of the progression not expected to offer any additional size on what’s due later Friday/Saturday.

Following this, the outlook becomes really slow with easing surf and strengthening monsoon winds out of the west, so make the most of the coming pulses.

Looking west towards the Maldives and it looks like the monsoonal E/NE trades will persist and kick up a gear this week, bringing strong local winds from the same direction and building levels of swell.

Increasing surf to 3ft+ or so is due this week from the E/NE, persisting through the weekend before possibly easing off next week.

Our good pulse of S’ly groundswell should be in the water today, with a general, slow easing trend over the coming week, so make the most of the size.

Longer term, some new S’ly groundswell may be seen late next week but other than this, the E/NE energy looks to be dominant.

Eastern Indonesia:

Reinforcing, inconsistent SW groundswell for today, peaking into the afternoon to an inconsistent 4-5ft+ on the magnets. Slowly easing swell into the end of the week.

Late pulse of moderate sized, mid-period S/SW swell Friday to 4-5ft, easing from a similar size Saturday.

Smaller, inconsistent S/SW groundswell for Tuesday to 4ft on the magnets, easing into the end of the week.

Variable winds continuing, tending W/SW from Wednesday afternoon, then W/NW tending fresher W/SW from Thursday, stronger into later next week.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Inconsistent SW groundswell today to an inconsistent 4-6ft on the magnets. Easing swell later week and further into the weekend.

Small, inconsistent S/SW groundswell building Monday to 3-4ft across the south magnets, easing Tuesday.

Moderate to fresh N/NW-NW winds, tending variable later Thursday and more so into Friday with E/SE winds on the weekend.

Strengthening NW winds into next week, possibly easing later week.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

E/NE windswell building to 3ft+ across northern and central locations this week, easing into the weekend, building again next week.

Small SE trade-swell to 2ft to occasionally 3ft today and tomorrow, easing into the end of the week.

Good pulse of S’ly groundswell today to 4-6ft across the southern atolls, easing slowly into the end of the week and weekend.

Strong E/NE-NE winds over the coming days, tending E later in the week and persisting on the weekend. Winds tending more NE next week.