Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 4th January)

This week through next (Jan 5 - 12)

The surf has been small, with a little background swell due today and tomorrow.

The weekend looks better but slow with our inconsistent SW groundswell for Saturday/Sunday being downgrades slightly. The swell is slowly filling in across Western Australia today and looks on the lower end of the scale, with the size adjusted for Indonesia.

It’ll be inconsistent and moderate in size, building Saturday and peaking overnight before easing slowly Sunday. Late Saturday and more so Sunday morning should reveal the most size.

Our secondary slightly bigger and more consistent SW swell is due to arrive later Monday but build more so through Tuesday, peaking into the afternoon.

This has been generated by an elongated fetch of strong to to gale-force W/SW winds that were drawn out to the south-east of South Africa. This progression has since weakened while moving north of the Heard Island region, with the swell now on the way.

A slow easing trend is due into Wednesday and the rest of the week, with some more distant, background energy slowing the drop in size. 

A moderate sized mid-period S/SW swell is possibly on the cards for Sunday/Monday the 14/15th, but more on this Tuesday.

Moving west towards the Maldives and the E/NE windswell looks to ease a little into the weekend before building again next week thanks to E/NE monsoon winds from southern India and Sri Lanka easing late this week, then restrengthening next week.

Our stronger S’ly groundswell due this afternoon should be on the build, generated by the W’ly gales to the south-east of South Africa last week.

The swell should peak tomorrow before easing slowly into the weekend.

Our secondary pulse of S’ly groundswell is on track for early next week, generated from the early stages of the secondary frontal activity to the south of South Africa. This again looks moderate + in size, building Monday and peaking Tuesday before easing into the end of the week.

Eastern Indonesia:

Moderate sized, inconsistent SW groundswell building Saturday, reaching 4-5ft later on the magnets, easing slowly from a similar size Sunday.

Reinforcing, inconsistent SW groundswell for later Monday but more so Tuesday, peaking into the afternoon to an inconsistent 4-5ft+ on the magnets. Slowly easing swell into the end of the week

Variable winds continuing, tending W/NW-W/SW and freshening mid-late next week.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Moderate sized, inconsistent SW groundswell building Saturday, reaching 4-5ft+ during the afternoon, easing slowly from a similar size Sunday.

Reinforcing, inconsistent SW groundswell for later Monday and more so Tuesday to an inconsistent 4-6ft on the magnets. Easing swell later week.

Variable winds tomorrow, freshening from the N-NW across northern and central locations from the weekend through Wednesday next week.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

E/NE windswell to 2-3ft across northern and central locations this week, easing into the weekend, building again next week.

Small SE trade-swell to 2ft to occasionally 3ft this period.

Moderate + sized S’ly groundswell building today, peaking tomorrow to 5-6ft across the southern atolls, easing into the weekend.

Secondary pulse of S’ly groundswell building Monday, peaking Tuesday morning to 4-6ft across the southern atolls. Easing swell through the rest of the week.

Weak W winds tomorrow, freshening across southern locations on the weekend, E/SE-E to the north.

Strengthening E/NE winds across northern and central locations next week, weaker to the south, shifting W/SW later week to the south.