Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 19th November)

This week through next week (Dec 20 - 29)

Small surf persists today, but our strong though inconsistent S/SW groundswell due into tomorrow is on track, with it performing well in Western Australia.

It was a little delayed timing wise (a few hours) so we can expect the same across Indonesia, though the bulk of the energy is due to fill in tomorrow afternoon, peaking on dark/into the evening before easing Thursday.

It looks moderate + in size and should provide quality surf before easing into Friday and further through the weekend.

The rest of the period looks relatively slow thanks to the progression of healthy though generally below gale-force fronts along the polar shelf

A small mid-period S/SW swell is due Sunday/Monday from a front that's south-west of Margaret River, with a stronger low behind it due to generate some slightly better, inconsistent groundswell for later Tuesday, peaking overnight, easing Wednesday.

Weak SW winds will develop through the days over the coming period, variable each morning and this will open the more exposed breaks for quality surf.

Looking across the Maldives and a small pulse of inconsistent S'ly groundswell yesterday should be on the ease, fading further through tomorrow.

Into Friday a small pulse of new mid-period S'ly swell is due, mixed in with some small NE windswell generated by NE monsoon winds off Sri-Lanka. This looks to persist through the period, with the winds extending down to the Maldives, limiting options to more southern and south-western facing breaks.

There'll also be some small, weak SE trade-swell in the mix later week, fading through the weekend.

The low that's on the backend of the trail of activity moving along the polar shelf should generate some slightly stronger S'ly groundswell for late Sunday, but more so Monday and then some better, sizier mid-period energy through the rest of next week.

Eastern Indonesia:

Moderate sized + S/SW groundswell building tomorrow, reaching an inconsistent 6ft on the magnets late in the day, easing steadily Thursday from 5-6ft. Rare bigger one possible at the peak of the swell.

Small, background mid-period S/SW swell for Sunday afternoon and Monday morning to 4ft across exposed breaks.

Inconsistent SW groundswell building Tuesday, reaching an inconsistent 4-5ft across the magnets later, easing Wednesday from a similar size.

Light, variable winds most of the period, tending SW-S/SW into the afternoons but with no strength. Possibly a little fresher next week.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Moderate sized S'ly groundswell building tomorrow to 4-5ft on the south magnets (possible rare bigger bomb), easing into Thursday.

Small, inconsistent mid-period S/SW swell Sunday to 3ft+.

Inconsistent SW groundswell for next Tuesday to 4-5ft on the swell magnets.

Variable winds across northern and central locations, SE-S/SE to the south tomorrow, more variable everywhere from Thursday.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Easing swell into the end of the week.

Easing S'ly groundswell tomorrow and Thursday.

Small, reinforcing mid-period S'ly swell building Friday 3ft+ across the southern atolls, smaller Male. Easing swell into the weekend.

Small, weak SE trade-swell building this week, along with NE windswell, more so into the weekend and next week.

Moderate sized, inconsistent S'ly groundswell building Sunday, peaking Monday to 4ft+ across the southern atolls. Slow drop in swell through the rest of the week.

Gusty E/NE-NE winds over the coming period, more N'ly to the south and weaker. Stronger periods of winds Thursday, tending E through the day, weaker Friday.

Stronger E/NE-NE winds kicking up from the weekend, even stronger early next week.