Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 14th November)

This week through next week (Dec 15 - 22)

A fun pulse of mid-period SW swell should be filling in across the Indonesian region today, with it due to peak tomorrow morning before easing into the weekend, remaining small early next week with the lack of any major frontal activity through the Indian Ocean.

Our better pulse of S/SW groundswell for mid-late next week is on track, with a strong polar low due to develop around the Heard Island region today, projecting a fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds east-northeast through our southern swell window.

The low looks a touch stronger than forecast on Tuesday and this should result in an earlier arrival though similar size across eastern Indonesia, with the forerunners due to arrive overnight next Tuesday, building through Wednesday ahead of a peak later in the day, easing Thursday.

It looks moderate + in size with nothing of significance to follow it into the following week. Therefore try and work around this incoming pulse. To the west, less size is expected along with less consistency.

Looking at the local winds, and weak SW breezes are due over the coming days and weekend (variable in the morning), freshening a little later next week though not overly strong.

Moving across to the Maldives no major trade-swell is expected over the coming period, though a slight strengthening of weak trades through the Indian Ocean mid-late next week should produce a little uptick in size next weekend and beyond though to 2ft+ or so.

S'ly swell pulses will reveal more size over the coming period, with easing mid-period surf today and tomorrow morning, ahead of an inconsistent new groundswell arriving later Sunday and peaking through Monday.

The distant source, south-west of South Africa should produce a fun spike Monday, easing slowly into Tuesday and Wednesday.

Some further pulses of background energy are due late week with a possible stronger groundswell Sunday/Monday the 24/25th. We'll review this next update.

Eastern Indonesia:

Inconsistent mid-period SW swell building today to 4ft, peaking tomorrow morning to 4ft+, easing into the weekend.

Moderate sized + S/SW groundswell building Wednesday, reaching an inconsistent 6ft on the magnets, easing steadily Thursday from 5-6ft.

Light, variable winds most of the period, tending SW into the afternoons, fresher late next week.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Small-moderate sized reinforcing SW swell for this afternoon to 4-5ft, easing tomorrow and into the weekend.

Moderate sized S'ly groundswell building next Wednesday to 4-5ft on the south magnets (possible rare bigger bomb), easing into Thursday.

Variable winds across northern and central locations, SE to the south, tending S/SE-SE across all locations on the weekend, then more variable into early next week across northern and central locations.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Easing swell into the end of the week.

Inconsistent, moderate sized S/SW groundswell building later Sunday, peaking Monday to 4ft, easing slowly for the rest of next week.

Small, reinforcing mid-period S'ly swell later week to 3ft+ across the southern atolls, smaller Male.

Small, weak SE trade-swell for the period, building a touch late next week and into the weekend.

Fresh E-E/SE winds across central and northern locations tomorrow, tending NE on the weekend, and NW to the south Saturday.

N/NE and W winds respectively north and south Sunday, with E/SE winds to the north and central locations Monday, W/SW to the south.

Freshening E/NE-E winds Tuesday, stronger NE Wednesday, with a low possibly forming bringing SW winds to southern locations late week, SE to the north.