Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 23rd November)

This week through next week (Nov 24 – Dec 1)

Small levels of background S/SW swell have provided a slight uptick in size across the regions today. This will persist tomorrow and Saturday before easing off slowly through Sunday.

Following this there's no significant swell sources until later in the week, when a small, inconsistent mid-period S/SW swell is due to arrive.

The source is a poorly aimed fetch of strong to near-gale-force NW winds east of the Heard Island region tomorrow.

A small, inconsistent swell is due on the south magnets Friday, with a secondary, similar size pulse of inconsistent SW swell due Saturday.

Following this a slightly better pulse of SW groundswell may be seen next Sunday/Monday generated by a more distant polar low south of South Africa. We'll have a closer look at this on Tuesday.

Moving west to the Maldives and with the south-east trade-swell weakening, we look to the S/SE swell generated by a low that's formed in the Indian Ocean.

The core winds speeds within this low have been upgraded since Tuesday and we should see a good pulse of S/SE groundswell now arriving earlier on Monday, building through the afternoon and then easing slowly Tuesday.

Following this the outlook is still very slow with the surf due to bottom out in size later week and into December.

Eastern Indonesia:

Small pulse of weak S'ly swell and background and S/SW swell Thursday/Friday/Saturday to 3ft across exposed south facing beaches.

Fading size into Sunday and tiny most of next week.

Small, inconsistent mid-period S/SW swell building late next Thursday, peaking Friday to 3ft across exposed breaks, with a similar sized pulse for Saturday.

Slightly better, inconsistent SW groundswell for Sunday to 3-4ft across exposed breaks.

Light, variable winds most of the period, tending S/SE through the afternoons later next week.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Small, inconsistent background swells mixed in with S/SE windswell. Surf peaking in the 2-3ft range across south magnets Thursday through Saturday morning. Fading surf after that.

Small, inconsistent SW swell building Friday, peaking Saturday with inconsistent 3ft+ sets across exposed breaks. A secondary pulse Sunday could be seen to 3-4ft.

Light, variable winds, tending S/SE-SE across southern locations through next week and becoming moderate to fresh through the afternoons.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Small background levels of SE trade-swell to 2ft to occasionally 3ft across exposed breaks tomorrow morning, easing into the weekend. Small and to 2ft max next week.

Moderate sized S/SE swell for Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning to 4-5ft on the sets across the southern atolls. Slightly smaller Male.

SW winds across central and southern locations tomorrow, S'ly to the south. Variable winds on the weekend with fresh E'ly winds across northern and central locations early next week.