Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 7th November)

This week through next week (Nov 10 – 17)

A small pulse of background S/SW swell is due later today, with a peak through tomorrow before easing into the evening and further on Saturday and into Sunday morning.

Looking at the better pulse of mid-period S/SW swell due into later Sunday and more so Monday, and the broad, slow moving polar low linked to this looks to have come in a little stronger than forecast earlier in the week.

This will result in a slight upgrade on the expected size, with the swell kicking nicely on dark Sunday ahead of a peak Monday morning. Make the most of this swell as it'll be down, down through the rest of the week with nothing significant to follow up (besides a small background SW groundswell Friday).

Looking over to the Maldives and we're looking at easing levels of S'ly and weak SE trade-swell that are due to continue easing into the weekend.

The polar low should generate a small pulse of mid-period S'ly swell for Sunday afternoon/Monday, with a secondary reinforcing pulse of S/SW groundswell due Tuesday afternoon, generated by a healthy low to the south-east of South Africa. Following this the swell will fade into the end of the week.

Eastern Indonesia:

Inconsistent mid-period S/SW swell building later today, peaking tomorrow morning to 4ft+.

Moderate + sized mid-period S/SW swell building late Sunday, peaking Monday morning to 6ft across exposed breaks. Easing swell for the rest of the week.

Small, inconsistent background SW groundswell for Friday to 3-4ft.

Light, variable winds with weak S-S/SW breezes into the afternoons tomorrow and Saturday. Afternoon winds tending S/SE-SE from Sunday and more SE through next week.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Small, inconsistent mid-period S/SW swell building later today, peaking tomorrow morning to 4ft+.

Moderate sized mid-period S/SW swell arriving late Sunday, peaking Monday morning to 5ft+, easing through the rest of the week.

Small, inconsistent background SW groundswell for Friday to 3-4ft.

Moderate to fresh SE winds across southern locations, more variable to the north. Winds strengthening a little into Sunday afternoon and more so next week.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Small background levels of SE trade-swell to 2ft. Easing S'ly swell tomorrow from 2-3ft across the southern atolls.

Small pulse of S'ly swell building Sunday afternoon, peaking Monday morning to 3ft+ across the southern atolls (smaller Male). Stronger, inconsistent S/SW groundswell building Tuesday afternoon to 3-4ft, easing from a similar size Wednesday morning (smaller Male).

Light E/SE-E winds across northern and central locations, fresher to the south. Winds tending E/NE-NE Monday and Tuesday next week across northern and central locations.