Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 12th October)

This week through next week (Oct 13 - 20)

Small surf on the magnets should give way to a fun pulse of mid-period S/SW swell tomorrow, peaking into the afternoon and then easing Saturday.

The source was a small but slow moving low that formed to the south-west of Western Australia earlier this week with moderate sized + surf due at its peak.

Besides a small pulse of SW groundswell Sunday, our better and stronger pulse of SW groundswell for Monday is on track, with a broad polar low strengthening as it moved across the Heard Island region the last couple of days.

An initial broad but relatively weak fetch strengthened to gale to severe-gale on the polar shelf, and an inconsistent but moderate + sized groundswell is due to fill in Monday, peaking through the afternoon before easing into Tuesday and the rest of the week.

Unfortunately as touched on in Tuesday's update there's nothing major storm wise in the southern Indian Ocean or Southern Ocean due through next week, resulting in a low run of surf across all regions.

Moving across to the Maldives and after a pulse of new mid-period SE trade-swell yesterday, the surf is due to ease slowly into tomorrow and the weekend, further next week.

This will be thanks to generally weak trades setup through the Indian Ocean, though background levels of energy shouldn't see the magnets bottoming out below head-high +.

S'ly groundswell will be the dominant source through the weekend and early next week, emanating off the low mentioned above.

A large pulse is due through Saturday, peaking into the afternoon and then easing slowly through Sunday and more noticeably next week.

Eastern Indonesia:

Moderate + sized mid-period S/SW swell building tomorrow, reaching 6ft into the afternoon, easing Saturday from 5-6ft.

Moderate sized, inconsistent SW groundswell building Sunday, peaking Monday to a stronger 6ft on the magnets into the afternoon, easing Tuesday.

Weak (moderate to fresh) E/SE-SE trades, light and variable each morning.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Moderate sized, mid-period S'ly swell for Friday to 4-5ft across exposed breaks, easing into the weekend.

Moderate + sized, inconsistent SW groundswell building Sunday, peaking Monday morning to 6ft across exposed breaks. Easing surf thereafter for the remainder of the week.

Strong SE-S/SE trades across southern locations tomorrow, fresh thereafter, lighter and more variable to the north though having a S-SE tendency.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Slowly easing SE trade-swell from today into the weekend (though not below 3ft+). Swell easing more so into later next week.

Moderate sized S'ly groundswell building Friday, peaking Saturday to 6ft across the southern atolls (smaller Male).

Slowly easing swell Sunday and into early next week.

Light SE-S/SE winds tomorrow across central and northern locations, fresh SE across southern locations.

Mostly variable winds next week though fresher E/SE-E winds to the south early in the week (S/SE to the north at the same time), easing into Wednesday.