Hawaii North Shore forecast by Steve Shearer (issued on Mon Jan 17)

This week and next (Jan17 – Jan28)

Hawaii: No let up in solid surf with good winds and an XL sized pulse this weekend.

More solid surf in the 8ft+ range was reported over the weekend on the North Shore with a generally light and variable air flow leading to glassy conditions.

Size has eased back a notch Mon but is ready to go again Tuesday as surf rebuilds from the W/NW to NW  starting out in the 3-5ft range and building to 6-8ft by close of play.

The bulk of this swell then fills in Wed with very solid 8-10ft surf developing under dreamy light E’ly to ESE’ly tradewinds. Surf holds Thurs morning before easing with a slight S tilt to winds, offering up excellent options on the more exposed stretches of the North Shore.

The focus of storm activity remains a large cyclonic gyre located between the Kuril Island, Kamchatka and Western Aleutians. That is spawning storms along the SE flank of the low, tracking towards Hawaii with a periodicity of a day or so between storms. A storm coming off the southern flank of the Gyre early this week intensifies to storm force as it approaches the dateline generating a large area of 30ft seas into the middle of the week. That is expected to see an XL swell in the 15-20ft range arrive early Sat morning. Winds look OK, light NE, good for Waimea. This will be another swell that maxes out inner reefs and supplies low end Big Waves for Outer Reefs and Big Wave spots. 

This swell slowly ramps down during Sun.

Into next week and high pressure NE of Hawaii maintains a more traditional NE tradewind flow through most of next week.

A more compact storm following the XL storm tracks towards Hawaii late this week and into the weekend bringing plenty of mid-sized reinforcing energy from the W/NW through  later Mon into Tues.

A quieter period is expected from mid next week with another storm expected to develop a fresh W/NW pulse into the Fri28 or Sat 29.

Low confidence is expected this far out so stay tuned and check back Wed for a fresh update.