Eastern Tasmanian forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Mar 14th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Tiny surf Fri/Sat
• S groundswell Sun with offshore winds and a late fresh S’ly change
• Strong S swell spike Mon, easing during the a’noon with small leftovers Tues
• More S groundswell likely Wed/Thurs with offshore winds
• NE windswell potential for next weekend

Recap

Fun waves over the weekend with E/NE swell to 3ft Sat, with NE windswell adding more energy later Sat into Sun. The NE windswell has remained persistent into today as NE winds remained in the swell window overnight. Size to 3-4ft today was brushed by offshore winds before N’lies kicked up with a gusty S’ly change expected later today. 

This weekend and next week (Mar14- Mar21)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. Weak high pressure is in the Tasman with a shallow, decaying trough moving NE of Tas today  with another weak high moving into the Tasman in it’s wake. 

Only tiny surf expected tomorrow with light NW-N winds, freshening in the a’noon as a major trough and front approach from the W.

Winds freshen from the NW then W/NW as the front approaches the state, then tend hard S’ly as the front pushes through Bass Strait and across the Island. Small S groundswell wrap may see some rideable 2ft surf before the wind shifts but it will be gusty offshore. Once the change hits there’ll be a late spike in new S swell, probably too windy to find a rideable wave. 

SW gales push through Bass Strait and adjacent to the Tasmanian East Coast Sun night and into Mon (see below) with the bulk of the frontal winds likely to extend up to Sydney in the hours before dawn. The trough and front now look to skip away to the east quickly during Mon but we’ll still see a significant spike in S swell from gales out of Bass Strait and the proximate fetch of gales SE and adjacent to Tas.

Source of S swell later Sun into Mon

Expect fresh SW tending W/SW winds, easing in the a’;noon and tending NW-N as a troughy area stalls about the NE. Punchy S swell t0 3-5 ft will ease in the a’noon as the front moves away. 

Only small S swells through Tues with offshore winds.

A long period S’ly groundswell is still due Wed/Thurs. Latest model runs have weakened the fetch as it approaches the Tasman, confining it to a smaller area but it’s still operating on a very active sea state so it’s possible it could still over-perform. Under current modelling we’re on track for 3ft sets at S facing beaches Wed a’noon, easing to 2-3ft on Thurs. We’ll see how it looks on Mon. Winds look OK for S facing beaches with a light N-NE flow both days.

Swells look to ease back to small E’ly angled ones into next weekend with a possible NE windswell Sat or Sun 

Further ahead and there’s more signs of life later next week with GFS suggesting an enhanced trade flow with an E’ly dip or elongated low in the Coral Sea. More frontal activity below the continent suggests S swells medium term although there’s nothing suggesting large swells at present.

We’ll see how it looks on Mon, until then, have a great weekend!