Eastern Tasmanian forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Mar 12th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Clean NE windswell Thurs AM, easing quickly through the day
• Tiny surf Fri/Sat
• S groundswell Sun with offshore winds
• Strong S swell spike Mon, easing during the a’noon with small leftovers Tues
• More S groundswell likely Wed/Thurs with offshore winds

Recap

Fun waves over the weekend with E/NE swell to 3ft Sat, with NE windswell adding more energy later Sat into Sun. The NE windswell has remained persistent into today as NE winds remained in the swell window overnight. Size to 3-4ft today was brushed by offshore winds before N’lies kicked up with a gusty S’ly change expected later today. 

This week and next week (Mar12- Mar21)

A new high has moved into the Tasman, quite strong at present (1031hPa) but it weakens rapidly as it moves NE through the Tasman for the rest of this week. It looks more like a weak spring pattern after the endless trades of the last month. To the south we are seeing strong, but zonal frontal activity which will impact the Island state with local winds and S swells later next week.

 N’ly winds will increase over the weekend as a more significant trough and frontal system pushes into the Tasman next week, generating swells from the southern quadrant.

In the short run we’ll see NE winds o/night freshen and generate NE windswell to 2-3ft for the morning, clean early under W-NW winds before a trough brings a shallow SW tending SE change which then washes out to light/variable winds. Size will ease quickly through the day.

A stronger front passes just to the south of the state Fri, driving NW tending W/NW winds across the Island before a weak trough sees winds go variable again in the a’noon. Only tiny/flat surf expected.

Not much over the weekend either, at least for Sat with minor NE winds swell possible under a fresh W/NW flow.

By Sun a’noon we may see some S’ly groundswell wrap at exposed S facing beaches in the 2-3ft range under NW winds before the front arrives and pushes SW winds aggressively up the coast.

That front pushes into the Tasman adjacent to the island o/night Sun into Mon (see below) and will generate some punchy S swell for Mon in the 3-4ft range under fresh SW tending S’ly winds.

Source of punchy S swell Mon

Size should ramp down quickly into Tues as the front races across the Tasman and W’ly ridging resumes as a strong polar front passes to the south. Expect 2ft leftovers on Tues.

A stronger S groundswell pulse looks to fill in Wed from a deep polar low passing under the Tasman Tues. It’s generated from below the continent, well to the SW of Tasmania and thus much better aimed at New Zealand targets. Long periods should see plenty of wrap into the best S swell magnets and coasts later Wed, peaking Thurs with sets to 3-4ft at S facing beaches.

 Winds should be offshore NW-W/NW Wed into Thurs before becoming  tricky to call with a trough potentially moving up the coast and bringing a S’ly change Fri. 

We’ll fine-tune on Fri. 

Seeya then.