Eastern Tasmanian forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Mar 5th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Chunky E/NE swells Wed but notch bigger- N’ly winds with a late S’ly change
• Peaking of E/NE swell mixed with small S swell Thurs with S’ly winds easing
• Fun E/NE swell persists into Fri, easing Sat
• Building NE windswell Sat, easing Sun
• S’ly change Mon with trough and building S swell

Recap

There’s been a constant signal of swell from the E/NE hovering around the 3ft mark through yesterday and into today. Winds have increased from the N/NE-NE today with a late S’ly change expected.

This week and next week (Mar5- Mar14)

TC Alfred (981 hPa) is currently less than 300 nm (nautical miles) due E of Brisbane and moving  W at around 6kts towards the SEQLD Coast. There may be some wobbles in the track as it approaches the coast which may have a material effect on the crossing point goes but as far as surf size is concerned everything is pretty locked in. Massive surf from the Moreton Bay Islands across the Gold Coast and down through Northern NSW will continue until the cyclone crossing, with much smaller surf on the Sunshine Coast and into temperate NSW and down to Tasmania. It’s been an epic event with a gnarly exclamation point expected as Alfred makes landfall. 

In the short run we’ll see a peak in E/NE swell over the next 2 days with 3-4ft (occ. 5ft set) surf expected. That will be mixed with short range S swell to 2-3ft tomorrow with mod/fresh S tending SE winds.

Winds will back off Fri with SE winds tending variable then N/NE in the a’noon as a new high pressure cell moves NE of the Island. 

Into the weekend and well see NE windswell build Sat into the 3ft range with small leftover E/NE cyclone swell under mod/fresh N/NE winds.

Sun brings a S’ly change with easing NE swells to 2ft.

Not much on offer next week at this stage. High pressure in the Tasman with an onshore flow and small, workable E’ly swells in the 2 occ. 3ft range most of the week according to GFS outlook. 

EC is still suggesting a trough of low pressure developing E of Tas with a chance for a spike in S swell, possibly of good quality Tues/Wed. 

We’ll see how it looks Fri.

Seeya then.