Eastern Tasmanian forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Feb 10th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

Stalled trough likely to see an increase in SE swell Sun, tending to E’ly swell through Mon/Tues, easing Wed 

Winds onshore through this period 

Increasing NE swells through Thurs, becoming very sizey through the day under fresh N/NE winds

Winds shift NW-W on Fri with large swell from the NE, easing through the day

Small E/NE swells fill in next weekend

S swell  shows Sat PM as a low forms east of Tas

Stronger S swell Sun, easing Mon

Recap

Nothing much on Sat with small surf and onshore winds. Sun saw a small increase in local windswell under onshore SE-E/SE winds. Today has built from 2-3ft to 3-4ft through the day under mod SE winds as a stalled trough remains NE of the state. 

This week and next week (Feb10 - Feb21)

The Northern Australian Monsoon (NAM) remains in full swing with tropical lows strung along the trough line from the Indian Ocean off the Kimberley Coast into the Coral Sea. High pressure at summer latitudes, south of Tasmania, is interacting with a stalled trough off the South Coast directing E’ly then NE’ly winds at Tasmania and then expected to anchor low pressure drifting down from the Coral Sea. This low intensifies as it tracks slowly through the South Pacific slot between New Caledonia and the North Island, spraying the East coast with quality E swell. As we enter the weekend a low is expected to form in the lower Tasman, bringing S’ly winds and potentially a significant S swell over the weekend. Lots to look at, let’s dive in.

In the short run we’ll see SE winds shift E/SE then E/NE as high pressure drifts under the state and the trough remains slow moving. 

Expect surf to build further to 5-6ft before easing during the a’noon. Winds should lay down in speed through the a’noon although consiurtions will stay bumpy.

By Wed we’ll see swells start to tend from E to E/NE, temporarily easing before building again in the a’noon. Still plenty of swell in the morning in the 3-4ft range, rebuilding to 4ft+ in the a’noon as winds shift NE and begin to freshen. 

Thursday sees a solid spike in NE windswell as N’ly winds ramp up from the South Coast across Bass Strait and adjacent to NETas (see below). We’ll see fresh N-N/NE winds and swells to 5-6ft, peaking in the 6ft+ range in the a’noon.

Source of punchy NE windswell Thurs/Fri

Size then eases through Fri as a front brings W’ly winds which tend S’ly late in the day. The morning should be pumping in the 3-5ft range under offshore winds but size will ramp down through the day so get in early.

Into the weekend and we’ll see a strong front and developing low bring a stiff offshore then S’ly flow into Sat. Not much surf to start with small swells from the E/NE but by the a’noon we’ll see building trend in new S swell to 3-4ft at S exposed breaks. 

Sunday looks much bigger as the low winds up East of the state and a long S’ly fetch develops. Expect mod/fresh S’ly winds and S swells building from 3-4ft into the 3-5ft range. We’ll see some small but good quality E/NE to 2 occ. 3ft in the mix as well.

Swells from the Tasman Low look to slowly ease through the first half of next week but we’ll see how that is shaping up on Wed.

Seeya then.