Eastern Tasmanian forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Feb 5th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S change Tues PM- with a spike in S swell Wed
• Small flush in S swell Fri, peaking into Sat
• Stalled trough likely to see an increase in SE swell Sun, tending to E’ly swell through Mon/Tues
• Winds onshore through this period 
• Swells may tend more E/NE-NE through Wed/Thurs- low confidence so check back in Fri

Recap

NE windswell peaked yesterday in the 3-4ft range with clean conditions before a S’ly change. Size has eased into the 2ft range today with mod S’ly winds.

This week and next week (Feb3 - Feb14)

No great change to the outlook as a tradewind fetch anchored by tropical low pressure near New Caledonia remains active before the low slides off to the SE later tomorrow and into Fri while a high pressure system moves south-east of Tasmania. We’ll see continuing tradeswells from this source. The next S’ly change pushes into Tas Fri before stalling, with a useful fetch of SE-E winds aimed up at East Coast Tas. 

In the short run we’ll see not much through tomorrow with small NE-E/NE swells to 1-2ft under a light flow, tending E/NE in the a’noon.

A trough brings a mod S’ly change on Fri, whipping up some short range, low quality S swell to 2ft in the a’noon.

Into the weekend and we’ll see a further increase in S swell o/night with Sat seeing short range S swell to 3ft at S exposed breaks under easing S’ly winds, tending SE in the a’noon. 

We should see a further increase in S/SE-SE swell Sun as the trough stalls off the Gippsland coast and develops a stronger fetch adjacent to the NETas coast. Expect size to build to 3ft+ during the day under SE winds.

Next week will see the trough stall, deepen and direct E’ly winds at Tasmania, generating a punchy E swell to 3-4ft on Mon.

Expect a peak in size Tues to 4ft, slowly easing Wed. Winds will be an issue, being from the E to E/NE through Mon and Tues.

Models are mixed after that with suggestions we’ll see a further E/NE to NE fetch bringing more swell through Wed into Thurs.

Surf should ease into next weekend.

Let’s see how that looks on Fri.