Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Dec 25th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Sizey S swell developing Mon PM, peaking Tues, easing quickly Xmas Day
• Sizey NE swells developing Thurs PM, peaking Fri AM, easing quickly as offshore winds develop Fri
• Not much to end 2024 and start 2025

Recap  

Fun waves yesterday in the 2ft range with today seeing SE swell to 2ft, clean early under offshore winds before S’lies. 

This week and next week (Dec25- Jan3)

No great change to the outlook. A deep low is moving slowly towards New Zealand but the main bulk of the fetch has already rotated away from the East Coast with an off axis fetch aimed at South Pacific Islands. Elongated high pressure is moving into the Tasman with an approaching trough, front and cut-off low expected to tighten the pressure gradient leading to freshening N’lies from Boxing Day and some developing NE windswell. A quiet end to 2024 and start to 2025 is expected under a weak, troughy environment and nothing in the near and far swell swell windows. 

In the short run we’ll see N’ly winds freshen and NE windswell build through the day to 3-4ft.

Source of NE windswell Thurs PM/Fri AM

Size should peak Fri morning in the 4-5ft range with offshore winds and ease quickly. Try and get out there because surf then eases right back into the weekend and stays tiny into the first half of next week.

Nothing of significance on the radar for next week. Weak high pressure in the Tasman and light winds and tiny swells for the last days of 2024. 

Models are hinting at a developing N’ly flow Tues/Wed (EC) or a weak troughy S’ly change (GFS), either of which may generate some minor rideable surf for Dec31-Jan 1.  A small trough may see some small SE swell develop mid week.

Nothing concrete for the second week of Jan either. Possible weak monsoonal low in the Coral Sea, or a weak developing trade fetch.

We’ll flag a period of slow, small surf and see how it looks on Fri.

For now, Merry Xmas all and seeya Fri.