Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed October 16th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Last pulse of E swell Thurs
• Small NE swells in the mix Thurs with N’ly tending NE winds
• Developing sizey NE windswell Fri with fresh NE-N winds
• Easing swells Sat with W winds
• S swell persists into  Mon
• Small long range E/NE swell on the radar for Tues/Wed week

Recap 

Sizey S swells to 3-4ft yesterday but hampered by onshore E/NE winds. Today has seen freshening N-NE winds with NE swells building to 2-3ft.

This week and next week (Oct 16- 25)

We still have low pressure roughly due east of the NSW/Victorian border buttressed by high pressure near New Zealand. It’s not a very strong system but we did see a little flare up on the southern flank o/night into this morning before the system began to dissipate, although it is expected to linger in the central Tasman. We’ll see a low skirting the Bight approach from the west result in freshening N’lies over the short term before entering the Tasman on the weekend, bringing another round of south winds and swell. In the tropics a trough deepening between Vanuatu and Fiji forms a broad surface low which tracks southwards through the wide open South Pacific slot between the North Island and tropical island chains, generating some tasty E/NE’ly swell next week.

In the short run, we’ll see N’ly winds freshen and tend NE with swells from the proximate fetch to 2ft and a small kick in E swell from the Tasman Low to 3ft in the a’noon. 

That N’ly fetch really ramps up Fri as the low approaches from the W (see below). We’ll see fresh/strong NE tending N’ly winds and building NE swells from 3ft+ to 5-6ft. 

Source of sizey NE windswell Fri

Make the most of that and get up early Sat for a brief period of SW winds before the low moves E and winds quickly tend S’ly. Leftover NE swells to 3-4ft early. By the a’noon we’ll see a fast rising new spike in S swell to 4-6ft at S facing beaches under fresh S’ly winds.

By Sun we’ll still see plenty of size from the S with windy 3-5ft of surf at S facing beaches under fresh but easing S’ly winds.

Our reconstituted low moves NE into the Tasman early next week, with high pressure sliding under it. This will maintain a light S’ly flow through Mon tending NE through the day and extending into Tues. We should see residual S swell to 3ft Mon morning, easing during the day.

While this is happening we’ll be expecting the arrival of good quality E/NE swell from the passage of the tropical low through the South Pacific slot.

Under current modelling we should see this swell start to show later Tues and fill in Wed with 2-3ft sets by close of play Tues and inconsistent 3ft sets on Wed. Winds look good for Wed with offshores expected as a front approaches.

E’ly swells then tail off through Thurs with a few small leftovers possible Fri. 

Further ahead we may see the approach of another low from the W, suggesting another swell from the S, possibly as early as next weekend.

We’ll see how that looks on Fri.

Seeya then.