Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri October 11th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Another pulse of S swell Sat, with SW winds easing during the day
• Easing S swell Sun with N-NW winds
• Small NE windswell Sun PM
• Long period S swell Mon, easing Tues
• Low forming NE of Tas on Mon with strong S swell Mon
• Sizey E/SE-E swells likely to develop Tues/Wed
• Possible NE swells developing Thurs/Fri depending on low approaching- check back Mon for latest updates

Recap 

Swell from the NE build yesterday into the 3ft range and supplied a couple of hours of very fun surf as winds shifted offshore in the a’noon before dropping rapidly by dark. Not much leftover today with only a tiny surf to 1-1.5ft under NW winds before a SW change.

This weekend and next week (Oct 11 - 18)

Not much change for the weekend f/cast. We have a broad front passing into the Tasman and a northwards moving trough, with a high pressure ridge filling in behind those short range features. The front will supply workable levels of S swell Sat with SW winds tending variable in the a’noon. Expect size to 2 occ. 3ft at S exposed breaks on Sat.

Winds shift N to N/NW on Sun as the front moves away and mobile high pressure quickly moves into the Tasman. We should see easing S swell to start with some N’ly windswell developing to 2ft during the day.

Still looking very dynamic next week. Mon looks like offering up some 2ft surf for the morning, with S’ly winds freshening as a trough deepens off the Gippsland coast and a fast rising spike in new S swell to 3-5ft in the a’noon. We’ll also see some long period S swell in the mix.

The trough looks to rapidly deepen into a broad surface low off the Far South or Gippsland Coast o/night Mon into Tues. There’s still model divergence over the strength and position of this low which will have material impacts on surf size and local winds so stay tuned for updates over the weekend and on Mon.

The gist of it is a low with a well aimed fetch off the southern flank in the NETas swell window (see below).

That should see building E/SE-E swell to 3-4ft through Tues, becoming sizey 5-6ft on Wed. Onshore E’ly winds look to accompany this swell.

Winds and swell for the end of the week depend on the fate of another inland trough and low which may focus NE winds on Tasmania and generate sizey NE swells Thurs into Fri. 

They could then morph into sizey E swells as the low moves offshore.

Still some model divergence there so check back Mon and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.

Until then, have a great weekend!