Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed July 24th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Slightly bigger NE windswell Thurs
• Small NE windswell wrap continues into the weekend with fresh NW winds
• Mod S swell Sun, easing Mon
• Strong low in the Tasman next week but positioned too far north for Tasmania
• Should be some small, rideable SE-E/SE swell most of next week from low with light winds

Recap

Sizey S swells yesterday were in the 3-5ft range at S exposed breaks with SW tending W/SW winds. Size has eased right off today with a few 2 occ. 3ft sets at S facing beaches under a NW/SW flow which is tending NW and freshening through the a’noon.  

This week and next week (Jul24- Aug2)

Settled conditions at the moment with a broad area of high pressure in the Tasman and continuing fresh NW winds. We’ll see a N’ly flow develop in advance of a trough which will see NE windswell peak through tomorrow. Tiny surf extends into the weekend before a front and low brings a S swell event Sun.

Get in tomorrow for a few 3ft sets before the NE windswell fades away again in the a’noon under fresh N’ly tending NW -W/NW winds.

NW winds freshen again Fri and we may see another little blip in size to 2ft during the day as a temporary  fetch establishes off the Gippsland coast. 

Into the weekend and we’ll see W’ly winds Sat before a brief S’ly change as a front clips the state. Early NE windswell in the 2ft range eases quickly but there should be some rideable options early.

By Sun we’ll see a front and low form off the far South Coast with mod/fresh S’ly winds developing. The fetch quickly moves north out of the NETas swell window but a minor increase in S swell to 3ft is expected from the early stages of the developing low (see below).

Source of S swell Sun as low forms to the NE of Tas

By next week the low and associated fetch will remain in the central Tasman, mostly positioned too far north for Tasmania.

Winds at the southern extent of the fetch will supply some small sideband energy for NETas through next week, likely in the 2ft range from the E/SE through Tues/Wed and 1-2ft into the weekend.

Winds near the South Island maintain small SE swells next week

Further ahead and we may see pre-frontal N’lies develop next weekend suggesting some NE windswell but that is too far away to have any confidence in.

Check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s looking.

Seeya then.