Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon July 22nd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Possible small NE windswell wrap Tues/Wed
• Slightly bigger NE windswell Thurs
• Small NE windswell wrap continues into the weekend with fresh NW winds
• Possible strong S swell Sun into Mon- low confidence due to model divergence, check back Wed

Recap

Sizey S swells yesterday were in the 3-5ft range at S exposed breaks with SW tending W/SW winds. Size has eased right off today with a few 2 occ. 3ft sets at S facing beaches under a NW/SW flow which is tending NW and freshening through the a’noon.  

This week and next week (Jul22- Aug2)

As outlined on Friday the Tasman Sea takes a breather this week with a large (1028hPa) high slowly moving over NSW and QLD to enter the Tasman through tomorrow. The remnants of the weekend’s front and low are weakening and rotating out of the swell window as they sweep across New Zealand. Following that we’ve got a spring like week ahead with fresh/strong NW winds and only some minor NE windswell wrap to offer up some rideable waves. Tiny surf looks to extend into the weekend with next week offering up a chance of a S swell to break the flat spell although there is substantial model divergence over a potential frontal intrusion into the Tasman.

In the short run we’ll see fresh NW winds establish today and continue right through Wed and into Thurs, veering W/NW Fri before holding NW again on the weekend. We’ll be relying on small NE windswell wrap from NW winds out of Bass Strait for Mon and Tues. Keep expectations pegged low but we should see some rideable 2ft waves at spots that pick up NE windswell.

Thurs looks a notch better as winds shift more N’ly into Bass Strait and the fetch extends north and southwards (see below). That should see a few 3ft sets across Thurs, easing into the ‘noon under fresh NW winds.

We should see a peak in NE windswell Thurs

Back to small, just rideable NE windswell wrap into Fri, extending into Sat at similar levels (1-2ft).

Sun is a different story. This is where our model divergence kicks in. EC is progging a much stronger, winter standard front through Sun that would see a late kick in new S swell with a significant amount of size- up into the 4-5ft range at least and bigger into Mon.

GFS has a very different scenario with a weak front that skips away quickly to the NE, leading to tiny surf Sun, with a small pulse Mon.

Low confidence on the outlook until we get some model agreement happening. Under the EC scenario we are looking at a slow moving low in the Tasman with a winter-calibre S swell event at least until mid next week. 

GFS would herald in more tiny surf until mid next week, at least with continuing NW winds.

We’ll have a better idea if the flat spell continues into next week on Wed, so check back in then.

Seeya then.