Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri July 19th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing S swells Fri with W’ly winds
• Small S swell developing Sat under S/SW-S winds
• Easing S swells Sun with winds tending NW
• Possible small NE windswell wrap Tues/Wed
• More NE windswell into next weekend
• S swell likely later next weekend - check back Mon for latest updates

Recap

Sizey S swells yesterday were in the 3-5ft range at S exposed breaks with SW tending W/SW winds. Size has eased right off today with a few 2 occ. 3ft sets at S facing beaches under a NW/SW flow which is tending NW and freshening through the a’noon.  

This weekend and next week (Jul17- Jul 26)

Small tweaks to the weekend f/cast. We’ll see a trough in advance of a front bring a S/SW tending S’ly change tomorrow with a minor increase in short-range S swell to 2-3ft on offer under poor conditions.

The front and low moves rapidly northwards on Sun, out of the NETas swell window so we’ll see winds shift back to the NW at mod/fresh paces with easing short period S tending SE swell from 2-3ft to 1-2ft during the day. 

Into next week and things look very quiet. A large, slow moving high over the Eastern half of the continent will supply settled conditions over the continent with W’ly ridging over Tasmania as fronts get shunted to the south. 

Expect a period of W tending NW winds next week, likely from Mon-Thurs. We should see some rideable NE windswell develop Tues from fresh NW winds, in the 2ft range, boosting a notch to 2-3ft Wed as winds become more favourably aligned off Bass Strait (see below). 

We should see some NE windswell Wed from winds out of Bass Strait

A slightly stronger NE windswell looks on track for Fri into Sat as pre-frontal winds freshen. These are very temporary, fickle fetches so we’ll see how they shape up on Mon, but we should see rideable surf during this period. Nothing over head high but 2-3ft surf is likely.

Our next swell source looks to be next weekend as another front and cold outbreak looms. Once the system moves into the Tasman there’s reasonable confidence we’ll see a S swell with GFS, at this early stage, suggesting a much stronger signal than EC. We’ll see how model runs play out over the weekend and report back on Mon with a clearer focus on the long term.

Catch you Mon and have a great weekend!