Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed July 17th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S swell spike Thurs with SW tending W/SW winds
• Rapidly Easing S swells Fri with W’ly winds
• Surf becoming tiny over the weekend with strong W’lies
• Possible small NE windswell wrap Sun a’noon into Mon
• Tiny/flat surf next week with hard core W’lies
• Possibly some small NE windswell Tues PM/Wed

Recap

Pumping E-E/NE swells in the 6-8ft range yesterday with S/SE tending S winds. Today is large again with SE swells to 6-8ft and winds swinging more SW’ly, opening up a greater range of spots. 

This week and next week (Jul17- Jul 26)

We still have a dual centred (dumbbell) low in the Tasman with one centre currently swinging northwards up the NSW Coast and the other remaining close to Tasmania. This is driving stiff W’ly tending SW’ly winds all the way up to the tropics - even New Caledonia is seeing this stiff SW flow! The low next to Tasmania and proximate fetch will generate a strong spike in S swell tomorrow before it quickly moves away with following fronts now looking less aligned for S swell production. 

In the short run , the close low drives SW tending  W/SW across NETas with a strong spike in new S swell tomorrow. Expect surf in the 4-5ft range, building to 5-6ft at S exposed breaks during the day.

It’s only a quick spike so expect a fairly rapid easing into Fri with S swell dropping away quickly from 2-3ft to less than 2ft under fresh W’lky tending W/NW’ly winds as another cold front pushes through. Fresh to gale force NW winds out of Bass Strait may even see some small NE windswell wrap later Fri a’noon. Worth a look but keep expectations low.

Into the weekend and strong/gale force W’lies continue to blow across Bass Strait and NETas. We’ll basically see tiny/flat conditions develop over the weekend with a small chance NW gales will generate some small NE windswell wrap, more likely Sunday a’noon into Mon morning. If we do see swell it’ll be in the 2ft range, 2-3ft best case scenario.

Easing swells into next week. Expect strong W-NW winds through Mon and into Tues. Basically tiny/flat surf is expected. We may see a slight N’ly tilt in winds later Tues into Wed with some workable NE windswell through that period. Let’s see how that looks on Fri. 

A modest frontal system looks to push into the Tasman Fri or Sat next week, suggesting a small S swell later next weekend for NENSW, remaining tiny in SEQLD.

We’ll see how that looks on Fri.

Seeya then.