Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon July 15th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Strong SE-E swells expected Tues with strong SE tending S’ly winds
• More strong SE swell Wed with S’ly tending SW winds
• S swell spike Thurs with SW tending W/SW winds
• Easing S swells Fri with W’ly winds
• Surf becoming tiny over the weekend with strong W’lies
• Tiny/flat surf next week with hard core W’lies

Recap

Fun sized E/NE swell Sat was in the 3ft range with SW winds, building further to 3-5ft Sat with freshening SW-S winds. As a deep low approached Tas o/night we’ve seen a stormy E-SE swell develop to 6-8ft with fresh SW winds tending fresh onshore E/SE.

This week and next week (Jul15- Jul 26)

As mentioned above we have a deep low (985hPa) adjacent to Tasmania and another attached low centre further E in the Tasman with the long E’ly infeed into this complex low gyre focussed near the west coast of the North Island aimed up at Tasmania. As we discussed last week the return S’ly flow from the low actually pushes onto the western side of Tasmania, effectively out of the swell window. We will see the low eventually move NE and back into the swell window by mid week with a spike in S swell expected during this period with a brief interruption of a mostly W’ly flow to a more SW one. We’ll then see more bog standard fronts with smaller S swell pulses into and over the weekend. Read on for details. 

Plenty of wind and and swell ahead with deep low next to Tas and strong E'ly fetch aimed up at it

In the short run with the low hovering around Bass Strait we’ll see fresh to strong SE winds tending more S/SE-S during the day. Plenty of swell from the E’ly infeed aimed at Tasmania, with size in the 6-8ft range expected. Only the most sheltered corners will be surfable.

Winds tend S’ly and then SW one Wed as the low start to move NE away from the state. An intensification o/night Tues is likely to see another large pulse of SE swell in the 8ft range Wed, easing during the day.

Another low centre and front swings up past the state Thurs with a slingshot fetch rebuilding S’ly swells to 4-6ft during the day with SW winds tending more W/SW or even W’ly during the a’noon. 

By Fri we’ll see easing swells with size to 3-4ft early, dropping during the day and winds from the W tending more NW and freshening as another front and low approach from the W.

Into the weekend and we’ll likely see tiny/flat surf develop as hard core zonal W’lies develop and flatten surf. We may see some tiny S swell and/or NE swell wrap from gales in Bass Strait but keep expectations well hosed down- it won’t be much more than knee high if that.

Next week looks similarly tiny/flat as W’ly winds blow across the state. We may see some tiny NE windswell wrap from NW winds in Bass Strait either Tues or Wed but it looks very flukey so let’s see how it looks on Wed.

Seeya then.