Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri July 12th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• E/NE swell peaks this weekend with fresh SW winds Sat, tending more SW-S on Sun
• S swells building Sat and extending into Sun
• Strong S swells expected Mon/Tues depending on position of low in Tasman
• Mix of easing E swells through Tues-Thurs next week
• More strong S swells mid next week as low moves back into Tasman

Recap

Fun sized E/NE swell has held in the 3 occ. 4ft range since the last recap and winds have been generally NW, although tending little N’ly through today. Definitely some fun waves around.

This weekend and next week (Jul12- Jul 19)

Not much change to the weekend f/cast swell-wise. The circulation in the trough line has increased wind speeds in the fetch as the air mass moves from high to low pressure. As a result we’ll see an increase in wave heights and period through tomorrow. The return flow from the deepening low as it tracks southwards towards Tasmania in the trough line will see mod/fresh S/SW winds set in after an early W-W/NW. Expect E/NE swell building from 3-4ft to 4-5ft during the day. The proximate fetch of S/SW winds will generate a spike in new S swell, possibly showing before dark on Sat into the 3-4ft range.

Those winds should remain fresh to gale force SW into Sun. An energetic mix of E/NE-E and S swells will be in the water- with size to 6-8ft from the S and 5-6ft from the E. If you can find somewhere making sense of the dual swells in the water under strong SW winds there should be some good surf on offer. 

Still a tricky outlook next week with the low expected to deepen but continue to move S or S/SW and end up close to the Gippsland coast or Tasmania with some of the swell generating winds possibly on the wrong swide of Tas but strong SE winds aimed at Tas.

Meanwhile the infeed into the trough block and now low retreats towards the North Island but shows signs of reintensifying as it does so. 

So we’ll see a mix of S and E’ly swells next week, although expect revisions on Mon, as we get a clearer focus on how the Tasman Low will behave.

Expect more strong surf into Mon as the low drifts close to Tasmania. Size in the 8ft range is likely, with that size persisting into Tues as the low remains close to the Island. Winds will be fresh onshore SE-E/SE though, so you’ll need maximum shelter.

We may also see a more S/SE swell pulse later next week under the EC scenario which suggests a deeper fetch in the Tasman as the low becomes complex and slow moving.

Either way, expect more S angled swell into Wed of next week, with plenty of size.

Further ahead and looks like we will see strong W’ly winds establish into next weekend as zonal winds push northwards over the SE of the continent and Tasmania. In the absence of other swells that should see surf become groomed and flat later next week into  the weekend. The following frontal system and low looks to be slow moving under the continent so we may have a few flat days to get through. Lets see how it looks on Mon.

Until then good luck finding waves as the low moves towards Tasmania!