Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed July 10th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun sized E/NE swell Thurs/Fri with NW winds
• E/NE swell peaks this weekend with fresh SW winds Sat, tending more SW-S on Sun
• S swells building Sat and extending into Sun
• Strong S swells expected Mon/Tues depending on position of low in Tasman
• Mix of easing E swells through Tues-Thurs next week
• More strong S swells later next week as cold front pushes into Tasman

Recap

NE windswell peaked in the 3ft range yesterday with light winds, easing off today into the 2-3ft range with a variable wind flow that started off SE/SW, shifted NW/NE then went W/NW. Better quality E/NE swell is expected to fill in during the day to 2-3ft.

This week and next week (Jul10 - Jul 19)

A trough is currently clearing the coast, expected to anchor a broad E’ly fetch generated by a monster high straddling New Zealand. This anchored trough fetch, or trough block pattern is favourable for swell production for almost the entire Eastern Seaboard and will come with mostly offshore winds until the weekend brings a more S’ly biased flow to Tasmania. We’ll see remnants of a small low at the terminus of the trough get captured over the weekend and generate S swells from the return flow of a regenerated low. Those swells are still looking a bit tricky to call as the new low ducks back in close to or behind Tasmania. We’ll sketch it out now and revisit details Fri.

In the short run we’ll see N/NW winds develop and fun sized E/NE swells to 2 occ. 3ft.

Those NW winds persist into Fri at mod paces. Surf from the E/NE holds at fun sized 2 occ. 3ft.

We get a size upgrade over the weekend as a result of gales feeding into a circulation in the trough line Fri (see below).  Expect surf from the E/NE to build Sat from 3-4ft to 4-5ft during the day with SW winds tending fresh S’lies as a significant S’ly flow will establish around the circulation/surface low forming in the trough line. That local fetch will generate a spike in short range S swell building to 3-4ft in the a’noon. Plenty of swell energy but the favourable E/NE direction from the dominant swell should be lighting up plenty of sheltered corners.

An energetic mix of S and E/NE swell continues into Sun. We’ll see the E/NE swell come off the boil, with size to 4-5ft easing during the day and short range S swell to 3-4ft.

Depending on the position of the low early next week we’ll be up for a stronger pulse of S swell generated by gales around the western flank of the low. That should see surf rebuild from the S Mon into the 5-6ft range. Expect revision to these estimates on Fri once we get a clearer picture of how that low will behave as it meanders around in the lower Tasman.

Broadly speaking surf should slowly come down from that peak later next week with a mix of quality E and S swells and offshore winds.

We may see a strong new low/frontal progression linked to a cold outbreak push into the Tasman late next week (see below). Under this scenario we’d expect more strong S swell later next week. Plenty of action ahead so check in Friday for the latest updates.

Seeya then.