Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon July 8th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• NE windswell from Mon PM, peaking  Tues as large high moves across Tasman
• Quality E/NE swell likely Wed-Fri next week with mostly offshore winds
• E/NE swell peaks this weekend with offshore winds Sat, tending more SW-S on Sun
• Plenty of S swell next week as broad low forms in lower Tasman

Recap

Small fun S’ly groundswell pulses over the weekend with both days seeinf a few 2-3ft sets under light W’ly winds. Winds have tended more N’ly today with some S groundswell to 2ft and NE windswell starting to fill in this a’noon.

This week and next week (Jul8 - Jul 19)

The monster high that was in the Bight last week is now in the Tasman and still dominating our local weather and surf conditions. An inland trough eventually clears the coast later Tues or Wed and the broad E’ly infeed into the trough transforms a typical but out of season tradewind fetch into a more broadscale “trough block” feature which will send swell to most of the Eastern Seaboard. By the weekend a front will capture the remnants of the trough and we’re looking at a solid return SW-S flow and resultant S’ly swells. Read on for details.

In the short run we’ll see N’lies at mod strength o/night into the morning, shifting variable and then S’ly as a trough moves NE of the state. Fun sized NE windswell holds in around 3ft in size with an easing trend late. There should be some fun waves around.

Winds look a bit flukey through Wed/Thurs depending on the position of the trough of low pressure off the NE coast. We should see periods of offshore wind as the low moves NE. Winds feeding into the trough will supply small E/NE swell to 2-3ft Wed, easing on Thurs to 2 ft with the occ. 3ft set but with good quality.

Fun waves then extend into Fri from the trough block set-up.

Into the weekend and E-E/NE swells from the trough block peak Sun under current modelling and slowly ease into next week. Size should ramp up several notches into the 3-4ft range Sat, build into the 4-5ft range Sun and ease Mon. So with plenty of swell from the favourable E/NE swell angle how are winds looking?

We should see W’ly winds Sat, tending SW during the day as a front sweeps over the state. Those winds will tend more SW-S as the front forms a low in the Tasman Sun.

There’s broad model agreement that the frontal passage over the weekend captures the stalled trough and coalesces into a broad, complex low in the Tasman next week. With the low in the Tasman establishing a broad fetch of strong winds to low end gales we’ll see a sizey S swell next week. Current modelling suggests a modest start to the week with mid period S swell in the 2-3ft range, bigger at more direct S exposures and mod/fresh SW-S/SW winds. We’ll see some leftover E/NE swell in the mix through Mon in the 3ft range, easing right back Tues.

Plenty of action from the south next week with good odds we’ll see a stronger, longer period S swell mid next week, either from a new, deeper fetch or a consolidation of the low near New Zealand. Low confidence specifics this far out so check back in Wed and we’ll start to sharpen the focus on next week. For now, we’ve got some tasty E/NE swell and offshore winds to look forwards too.

Check back Wed for the latest.