Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri July 5th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S’ly groundswell pulses starting Sat with light SW winds
• Bigger S pulse Sun PM, extending into Mon with light winds
• NE windswell from Mon PM, peaking  Tues as large high moves across Tasman
• Quality E/NE swell likely Wed-Fri next week with improving winds

Recap

A small pulse of SE swell yesterday filled in nicely with size to3ft on the sets and light winds. Winds have shifted W/SW today with some easing 2-3ft surf from the SE.

This weekend and next week (Jul5 - Jul 12)

We’re still being dominated by the record breaking (1044hPa) high in the Bight, although it is  very slowly easing as it moves towards Tasmania. Fronts passing under the state well to the south will supply small S groundswell Sat in the 2ft range at S facing beaches with light SW winds. 

As mentioned by Craig the polar storm track is being steered into the New Zealand corridor sending L-XL surf to Pacific targets. Sideband energy from the fetch before it gets steered by the long wave trough will supply small S groundswell pulses and later Sun should see a notch more energy with 2-3ft sets at S facing beaches and reefs. That energy should extend into Mon  before easing. Light offshore winds should tend N/NE in the a’noon and freshen into Mon.

With the high in the Tasman next week we’ll see NE winds freshen off Bass Strait and adjacent to NETas. We’ll see an initial build in NE windswell Mon a’noon to 2ft, building further and peaking Tues in the 3ft range with winds swinging NW through W and then SW as a trough forms in Bass Strait. 

Further ahead we’ll see a more robust NE-E/NE swell develop as a result of the “trough block” pattern mentioned on Wed. This looks to set-up as the clearing trough Mon sets up a long N-S oriented line in the Tasman to Coral Seas and focusses a long E’ly tending E/NE fetch through this vast area focussing nicely into the NETas swell window around a small low at the end of the trough (see below). Windspeeds are the limiting factor but we should see a steady increase in E-E/NE swell from Wed into next weekend- likely building from 3-4ft Wed into the 3-5ft range by Thurs and easing slowly into the weekend as a conservative estimate. Onshore winds Wed should tend more N’ly Thurs  possibly W’ly on Frau as a front pushes through. We’ll finesse those winds on Mon.

Source of E/NE-NE swell next week

Until then, have a great weekend!