Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon July 1st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Strong SW tending S/SW winds Sun, W/SW-SW tending S/SE Mon
• Moderate sized S swell Tue, easing Wed
• SW tending S-SE winds Tue, SW tending SE Wed
• Small pulse of SE swell Wed, easing Thurs
• Tiny leftovers Fri
• S’ly groundswell pulses starting Sat
• Bigger S pulse Sun PM, extending into Mon with light winds
• Possible NE windswell from Tues as large high moves across Tasman

Recap

NE windswell built to 2-3ft on Sat under N’ly winds. Small NE leftovers Sun were replaced by new S swell to 3-4ft at S facing beaches. Size had eased a little today from the S with mod SW winds.

This week and next week (Jul1 - Jul 12)

The synoptic pattern looks unseasonal with a huge, slow moving high in the Bight, expected to be reinforced by another cell to create a blocking pattern below the continent and maintain a long lasting ridge up the Eastern Seaboard this week. Although S’ly winds will be problematic until Fri there’ll some swell to play with as low pressure remains in the Tasman, with a slingshot fetch expected as the low moves N during the week and some sideband energy for NETas.  The high will be dominant right through into next week, as it slowly drifts into the Tasman, with some NE windswell likely as well as S’ly groundswell pulses. 

In the short run we’ll see SW tending S/SW-S winds and a reinforcing S swell to 3ft at S exposed breaks, with some SE swell in the mix.

Similar winds Wed tending more S/SE and then variable in the a’noon. The reinforcing S pulse holds to to 3ft at S facing beaches before easing during the day.

The slingshot fetch around the Tasman Low Wed should produce a small pulse of S/SE-SE swell Thurs for NETas with size to 2-3ft under light S’ly winds easing in the a’noon.

Not much at all on Fri as the low moves north and swell sources dry up, but we’ll see winds swing more offshore as the high approaches Tas and a series of polar lows sweep under the state. Expect small leftovers on Fri to 1-2ft.

Into the weekend and winds will tend SW again on Sat, more variable Sun as high pressure slips over the state.  We will see some long period S groundswell show from Sat from a series of powerful fetches moving well to the south later this week and into the weekend  (see below). These fetches are better aimed at Pacific targets but the magnitude of the seas generated will see some long period sideband energy show across NETas starting Sat with sets to 2 occ. 3ft, and a stronger pulse Sun a’noon to 3 occ. 4ft.

 S’ly groundswell pulses continue into early next week. They’ll be flukey and overlapping so expect soft and slow periods and certain beaches may miss out altogether. Monday should see more 3ft sets with the occ. 4ft wave at S facing beaches.

That should continue into Tues before easing.

With NE winds increasing next  week we may see some NE windswell develop possibly as early as Tues next week.

Early days so let’s see how it looks on Wed.

Seeya then.