Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Jun 3rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Rapid drop in E- E/SE swell Tue with strong, easing S/SW-SW winds, more W to the north
• Smaller background E/NE swell for Wed/Thu with strong S/SW-SW winds Wed, S/SW tending S/SE Thu
• Possible rebuild in S swells later this weekend- low confidence, check back Wed
• Wintry pattern sets in next week with fresh NW winds

Recap

Tiny over the weekend but today has seen XL E’ly swells to 10-12ft with offshore SW winds developing.

This week and next week (Jun 3 - 14)

At 6am the coastal low is tucked in very close to the NSW/Victorian border with gales aimed primarily at Gippsland and NE Tasmania generating huge E’ly swells for NETas. By midnight the gale force flow ceases and by tomorrow all the flow will be W’ly through Bass Strait.  Models are suggesting remnants of the low eventually move back into more central parts of the  Tasman and redevelop as frontal activity sweeps in later this week. Still a lot of model divergence on that scenario so expect plenty of revisions this week.

In the short run expect swells to drop quickly through tomorrow with offshore SW winds tending to SE breezes and morning size to 6ft+ dropping to 3-4ft by close of play.

Winds shift S’ly tending S/SE on Wed but we should see another pulse of E-E/NE swell from winds infeeding into a trough remnants in the Central Tasman Sea (see below). Expect surf to 4-5ft on Wed, easing during the day.

Looks like winds remain S-S/SE Wed through Fri as the low remnants hover in the Lower Tasman but we should see workable E-E/NE swells to 2-3ft Thurs and Fri from winds infeeding into the low.

Into the weekend  and there’s low confidence in specifics due to model divergence but light S’lies Sat looks to increase Sun as a front passes through an the Tasman low redevelops, likely bringing an increase in S-S/SE swell through Sun. We’ll dial in specifics on Wed.

Next week Looks like we’ll see the first winter front sweep up across the SE of the country with winds likely to tend fresh NW’ly (possibly pre-frontal N/NW) early next week.

Expect small NE swells into Mon or Tues. 

The first in a series of fronts is likely to be very zonal so only small S swells are expected.

A following front is showing signs of being much better aligned for swell production at this early stage so we may see a winter style S swell later next week.

We have to get through the current period of dynamic instability in the Tasman so expect some revisions when we come back Wed.

Seeya Wed.