Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed May 29th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr) 

• Small NE swell Thurs PM, building into Fri with offshore winds
• Easing surf Sat
• Building surf Sun PM as low pressure trough forms off NSW Coast and moves S
• A few days of large stormy E swells and onshore winds from Mon-Wed as low sits near Bass Strait -check back Wed for latest updates 

Recap

Not much to recap since Mon. Tiny swells yesterday and into today, mostly micro NE wind swells with NW winds around 1ft.

This week and next week (May29- June 7)

The polar low which provided such a run of S’ly groundswell  is now well out of the picture and while we wait for those swells to strike Tahiti we’ve got a few smaller and unseasonal NW’ly days to get through before a dynamic weekend pattern unfolds. The gist of it is large high moving into the Tasman with an approaching trough and cut-off low. The low sweeps to the south this weekend while the trough buds off and forms a trough of low pressure off the NSW Central/South coast, bringing weather, onshore winds and large E’ly swells. Details below. 

In the short run and we’ll see tiny surf through tomorrow with freshening N/NW tending NW winds. A small increase in NE windswell to 2ft is on the cards for the a’noon.

Friday is a better bet as pre-frontal N’lies reach peak strength off the NSW coast and NE windswell peaks through Bass Strait and off the NE coast. Expect surf to 3ft with winds tending more W/NW to W through the day ads the front pushes through. These winds may reach low end gale strength through the day so be prepared for hard offshores.

Into the weekend and under current modelling, by first light Sat morning a trough of low pressure will be deepening due east of the Illawarra. Not much surf for NETas until the trough moves south so expect tiny surf for Sat with offshore tending S/SE winds.

The trough of low pressure is expected to form a surface low and track SSW towards the Gippsland Coast/Bass Strait on Sun. That will bring an onshore SE-E/SE flow through the day. Small surf to start but we may see a late kick in new E’ly swell as strong winds inferring into the low enter the swell window. Check Fri for timing but winds will be strong onshore.

With the low near Bass Strait on Mon (see below) we’ll see large E’ly swells building under strong/gale force E’lies. Expect stormy 8-10ft E swell on Mon with victory at sea conditions.

Large stormy E swells early next week as low sits near Bass Strait

Similar for Tues with massive surf and howling onshore winds from the E-E/SE.

Models do suggest the low moves out into the Tasman finally (see below), so we should eventually see settling SE swell after this occurs. Still some model divergence there. It currently looks fairly weak so we’re on track for surf to build later Thurs into Fri into the 3 occ. 4ft range. Winds will depend on the position of the low but we are likely to have onshore winds for most of next week.

Like all troughy periods with potential lows in the picture we’ll expect revisions through the short term so make sure you check back Fri for the latest look before the weekend.

Seeya then.