Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon February 26th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Building NE windswell Wed, holding Thurs AM with winds turning offshore in the morning
• Small leftovers from the NE on Fri
• Sizey S swell developing Sun, peaking Mon and easing through Tues as strong low forms SE of Tas

Recap

A small pulse of S swell Sat saw surf in the 1-2ft range at S exposed breaks with SW winds shifting E/NE in the a’noon. Sunday dropped right back to 1ft or so. Today has seen another small pulse of S swell to 2-3ft t S facing beaches as a front passes into the Tasman. Early SW winds have now shifted S-S/SE. 

This week and next week (Feb 26 -Mar8)

We’ve got a weak, troughy pattern in the Tasman Sea, with a minor cold front passing to the SE of Tasmania bringing S’ly winds and a new high pressure cell poised to enter the Tasman in it’s wake. The high cell is weak but we’re looking at a fun end to Summer, with some mid week NE windswell for Tasmania and small background E swells for the sub-tropics. After that quiet spell extends into the start of Autumn a stronger frontal intrusion into the Tasman looks likely next week with some robust S swell accompanying it. Details below. 

In the short run we’re looking at tiny surf through tomorrow with a minor NE windswell possible to close out the day as high pressure moves into the Tasman and NE winds freshen.

Much more size coming into Wed as the fetch length increases and and winds freshen. Expect size building to 3-4ft during the day.

A further increase is expected o/night into Thurs as windspeeds in the head of the fetch reach their maximums. That should see pumping NE windswell Thurs to 5-6ft with winds switching offshore early in the morning . Pencil in Thurs morning as surf eases through the day.

Just small 1-2ft leftovers Fri with offshore winds as a synoptic W’ly flow sweeps across the state.

Small surf continues into Sat with a minor S swell pulse from the approaching low.

Sun should see a much stronger S swell signal as a front and potential low form SE of Tasmania. Depending on the strength of the low (GFS has a much stronger and more extensive system than EC) we’re looking at a solid blast of S swell for Sun- potentially in the 5-6ft range, at S facing beaches. Plenty of wind on tap too, as a strong new high pushes across the Bight tightens the pressure gradient.  

Mon and Tues should see conditions settle down as the high moves into the Tasnan and pressure gradients ease.

Plenty of strong S swell Mon, in the 5-6ft range , with an easing expected into Tues as winds shift through NW-N. 

We’ll fine-tune those details as we move through the week. 

Further ahead and we should see high pressure become slow moving in the Tasman. A moderate trade-flow looks to set up in the Coral Sea, with workable trade-wind swells in the sub-tropics. We may see some of that start to filter down into NETas in the longer term, especially if more local E/NE winds develop in the Northern Tasman. Either way,  nothing dramatic on the radar, so we’ll come back Wed and see how it’s looking.