Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri February 23rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small building S swell Sat with fresh S/SW tending S/SE and then E/NE winds
• Easing S swell Sun with NW tending NE winds
• Building NE windswell Wed, holding Thurs AM with winds turning offshore
• Possible S swell Sun/Mon

Recap

Plenty of NE windswell yesterday in the 3-4ft range with N/NE winds. Surf has eased and winds have gone offshore today (NW tending SW in the a’noon) but there are still fun 2-3ft waves from the NE with some longer range E/NE swell also in the mix. 

This week and weekend (Feb 22 - 25)

High pressure in the Bight with a trough moving up the coast and robust low (974hPa) moving under Tasmania sets the scene for the weekend.To the East the tradewind belt is contracting and weakening after a month of action. Not much change to the f/cast.

The backside of a strong low exhibits SW winds in the swell window with a fun pulse of mid-period S'ly swell due to build Saturday, peaking to 2-3ft at S exposed breaks into the afternoon. Winds should ease off and tend variable in the a’noon, so an improved outlook compared to Wed.

Surf eases rapidly Sun with easing 2ft sets max across the south magnets and early NW winds shifting E/SE then SE/SW in the a’noon.

Into next week and a weak front Mon brings another bump in S swell, with a S-SE change and small surf building to 2ft at S exposed breaks into the afternoon.

The next surfable day is Wed as high pressure moves into the Tasman and a strong N’ly flow forms along the NSWSouth Coast down to Bass Strait. That will see fresh N-N/NE winds and surf building from 3ft to 4ft during the day. 

Thurs looks great as a trough/front brings offshore winds with leftover 3-4ft surf in the morning easing during the day. 

Not much else on the radar after that- looks like a very quiet start to Autumn with some small/tiny days to end next week and enter the first weekend of March.

ECMWF continues a very zonal flow of fronts below the country during this period with not much happening in the southern swell window.

GFS is a more optimistic towards the end of model runs with a stronger front and parent low approaching Tasmania later next weekend with a resultant S swell into Sun or Mon, possibly with some juice behind it.

Low confidence due to the model divergence so lets see how it looks on Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!