Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri February 16)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun E/NE swells filtering down from tradewinds this weekend extending into next week
• S swell spike Mon,easing Tues
• NE windswell likely Thurs next week
• More S swell next weekend, biggest Sun

Recap

Tiny surf yesterday in the 1ft range with light winds. Today has perked up just a touch to 1-2ft from the E/NE-NE with light winds continuing as high pressure moves East of the Island.

This weekend and next week (Feb 16 - 23)

High pressure belt remains strong with cells lined up to enter the Tasman. A monsoonal low in the Gulf of Carpenteria is generating a long cloud band down the east coast. A long, broad E’ly tradewind fetch extends from the Coral Sea into the South Pacific with the tail of the fetch in Tahitian longitudes. To the south a complex low and front is expected to pass under the state over the weekend.

No great change to the weekend f/cast- we’ll see variable winds all weekend which should stay light most of the day and be offshore in the morning. 

Small fun E/NE swell Sat to 2-3ft, a notch smaller Sun from that direction. We should see some S swell pulses, tiny through Sat but with some 2ft sets on Sun. All in all there should be some fun small waves over the weekend.

Into next week and  frontal system tracking under Tasmania has a wide but zonal fetch over the weekend, with a secondary front following with a better aligned fetch. That will send pulses of mid and longer period S swell wrap for Sun/Mon. Likely in the 2ft range Mon before easing.

Through this period and in fact most of next week we’ll continue to see small, pulsey E/NE swells coming off the deep E’ly fetch.  A tropical low in Samoan longitudes drifts SE and is not a significant swell source. There will be ups and downs in size as the fetch fluctuates but 2 occ bigger sets look likely through the first half of next week. 

Light winds for the first half of the week freshening from the N on Thurs as a front approaches and generating some NE windswell to 2-3ft on Thurs into Fri before easing.

This front brings W’ly winds Fri then a S’ly change Sat and some new S swell with it. EC has a stronger frontal system with some short range S swell likely over the weekend and mid period S swell filling in behind it on Sun while GFS has a weaker system, decaying as it enters the Tasman and not much behind it all.

It’s likely we’ll see some sort of S swell next weekend but we’ll take a look with fresh eyes on Mon.

Tropics are still looking active into the end of model runs although with nothing specific to talk about at the moment. Check back Mon for that too.

Seeya then and a have a great weekend!