Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed February 14)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing N/NE windswell Wed with W winds, tending SW then SE in the a’noon
• Small E/NE swells  Thurs/Fri- just rideable on Fri with NW winds
• Fun E/NE swells filtering down from tradewinds next weekend
• S swell spike Mon , easing Tues
• E/NE windswell likely mid next week, possibly sizey check back Fri for updates

Recap

Plenty of NE windswell in the 3ft range yesterday with fresh N’ly winds which tended more N/NW-NW in the a’noon. Easing size today but still some fun 2ft surf from the NE with fresh SW winds tending to N/NE breezes in the a’noon. 

This week and next week (Feb 14 - 23)

Our current pattern of slow moving high pressure  near New Zealand is still well entrenched with a modest cold front sweeping into the Tasman and bringing SW winds to Tasmania. Multiple cells of reinforcing high pressure then one by one move into the Tasman, maintaining a weak ridge up the NSW Coast and a deep E’ly flow through the South Pacific and Eastern Coral Sea, with resulting E’ly swells favouring the sub-tropics for size with some small E/NE swell filtering down to NETas. More cold fronts and small S swells are also on the radar.

In the short run we’ll see surf bottom out though tomorrow with fresh offshore winds and tiny surf to 1-1.5ft tops. A light NE seabreeze is possible in the a’noon. 

Energy from the tradewind band fills in Fri with some inconsistent 2ft sets and the odd bigger one possible but there will be slow periods. Offshore winds continue, tending NW with a’noon sea breezes likely.

Into the weekend and E/NE swell filtering down from the tropics holds steady at 2 occ. 3ft with plenty of slow periods due to the travel distance.

We should see light offshore winds through the morning tending to variable SE-NE breezes in the a’noon but remaining light.

Similar size surf Sun from the E/NE but as a compact but strong low passes under the state (see below) we’ll see some S swell wrap to 2-3ft at S facing beaches under mod W/NE winds tending more NW in the a’noon.

Next week sees S swell from the low peak in the 3ft range at S exposed breaks on Mon with light SE winds developing as a new high ridges in. There’ll be continuing small E/NE swell to 2ft in the mix but you’ll have to wait a while for sets.

A fun mix of S and E/NE swells continues into Tues with light winds early as high pressure moves E of the Island.

Further ahead and we may see E/NE winds freshen adjacent to Bass Strait as high pressure moves towards New Zealand and an inland trough approaches. If this pans out as currently modelled we’ll see a chunky E/NE swell build through Wed, possibly up into the 4-5ft range with onshore winds.

Source of E/NE-NE swell next week

Thurs morning could be good with offshore winds before a S’ly change and easing but still strong E/NE swell.

More small S swell pulses then look likely into next weekend.

Let’s see how that looks on Fri.