Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Jan 5th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Surf easing Fri into Sat
• Another round of NE windswell Sun/peaking Mon (with early offshore winds developing before a S'ly change) and slowly easing Tues
• Low now forms E of Tas with developing short range S swell Mon PM, extending into Tues
• NE swell from low holds into Tues, eases quickly Wed
• Small surf later next week with possible flush of S swell Fri

Recap

Short range S swell built to 3-4ft yesterday with fresh S’ly winds. Size has eased right back today with 1-2ft surf from the S and winds now shifting E/NE-NE as high pressure shifts E of the state.

This weekend and next week (Jan5 - Jan12)

Not a great deal of change for the weekend f/cast as high pressure slips NE of the state and winds shift N’ly and freshen.

Small amounts of NE windswell start to develop through Sat a’noon but offering only marginal 1-1.5ft in size.

A much more signigficant increase in NE windswell is expected for Sun as the fetch ramps up down the NSW South Coast and into Bass Strait.

We’re looking at size building into the 3ft+ range ( a few 4ft sets) under mod/fresh N-N/NE winds.

Plenty of size into Mon morning , likely in the 3-4ft range early with a brief window of light NW winds before a trough (which forms a surface low) brings a vigourous S’ly change through the early morning. That will quickly whip up sizeable short range S-S/SE swell to 4-5ft along with plenty if NE swell as the trough forms a low and the infeed into the low maintains size. Winds will be strong from the S but could shift SW or even W depending on the position of the developing low. Definitely pencil in Mon and Tues. Size holds or increases into Tues with a strong mix of S and NE swells to 4-5ft likely. 

Low forming E of Tas Sat brings a fast rising S/SE swell and NE swell

Looks like the low quickly skips away to the SE on Wed with swells easing quickly to 2ft and W tending NW winds. 

Further ahead and we’re looking at small, weak background swells to close out the week. 

There is suggestions at the end of model runs that we may see a front late next week bringing a small flush of S swell Fri. The high pressure belt continues to track at a very southwards latitude, suppressing the Southern Ocean storm track so any S swells making it into the Tasman will continue to be very small and flukey.

Let's see how it looks Mon, in the meantime keep the  sleds handy and have a great weekend!