Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Jan 3rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S’ly windswell Thurs, with tracés of long period S swell and fresh S’ly winds
• Surf easing Fri into Sat
• Another round of NE windswell Sun/peaking Mon (with offshore winds developing) and slowly easing Tues
• Low now forms S of Tas and skips away to the SE- only small S swells generated Tues/Wed

Recap

Small NE swells built laster on Thurs to 2ft under NE winds. Size has increased today into the 3ft+ range with early variable winds offering clean conditions before a trough brought a S’ly change.

This week and next week (Jan3 - Jan12)

Not a great deal of change since Mon with a slow moving, weakening high in the Tasman, and a coastal trough off the QLD Coast (responsible for hundreds of mm of rainfall) now moving away and dissipating. A trough moving north from a position east of Tasmania brings a renewal of the S’ly pattern today into Fri before the summer pattern slowly resets over the weekend. Any large or moderate swell generating features have disappeared from the charts, alas but there’ll be some fun swell sources for NETas.

In the short run and fresh S’lies tomorrow will be accompanied by a building short range S swell reaching 4ft at S facing beaches, with traces of longer period swell mixed in. Much smaller surf at more sheltered beaches.

Winds ease back Fri and tend more E/NE in the a’noon as high pressure moves into the Tasman. Small leftovers to 1-2ft, becoming tiny during the a’noon will supply a grovel for the keen.

Into the weekend and keep expectations low for Sat as high pressure slowly moves east of Tas and small weak wind swells barely crack the 1-1.5ft range.

Sunday looks a better bet as NE winds building off the NE coast and extending up to Bass Strait and the South Coast (see below) start to generate NE windswell with size likely to reach 2-3ft in the a’noon.

Well positioned fetch for NE Tas

That fetch reaches peak strength o/night Sun into Mon with size on Mon in the 3-4ft range (possibly bigger 4-5ft) with N’ly winds shifting NW-W as a low forms under the state. Definitely pencil in Mon.

We should see clean easing NE swells Tues, with a chance for some S swell in the a’noon although the low slips away quickly to the SE during the day.

Small, residual NE-E/NE swells then pad out the rest of next week with high pressure in the Tasman.

Check  back Fri for a last look at the weekend.

Seeya then.