Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed December 27th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing E-E/NE swells Thu with SW winds ahead of S’lies
• Small S swell Fri AM and leftover E swells, easing into Fri PM
• Stronger S swells building later Sat, peaking Sun
• More S swells Mon
• Plenty of local S-S/SE swell expected Tues/Wed as trough forms off Tas

Recap

Plenty of size yesterday in the 3-4ft range with E-E/SE swells and winds from the same direction. Similar size surf today with light E’ly winds on offer. 

This week and next week (Dec 27 - Jan5)

No great change to the summer pattern with a massive heat dome over Central, Western and Northern Australia spawning trough lines which are creating unstable, stormy weather across large swathes of the East Coast. A complex inland trough/low is emerging from the Gippsland coast into the Tasman Sea with a fetch of SE-E/SE winds aimed at Tasmania and offering some plenty of E-E/NE swell, easing tomorrow. Elsewhere, it’s a bland pattern with a dormant Coral Sea. Cold fronts later this week and over the weekend will supply S swell and bring cooler weather. 

In the short run and the low off the Gippsland coast is slow moving tomorrow but get in early for a morning SW breeze before a front pushes in and brings S’ly winds. Plenty of leftover E-E/NE swell to 3-4ft, easing during the day.

S/SW winds early Fri with a small amount of new S swell to 2-3ft and easing leftover E swell to 2-3ft. Winds shift NW-SW in the a’noon as a trough and new front push over the Island. Expect both sources of swell to fade out in the a’noon. 

Into the weekend and we’ll see increased action from the south as a pair of fronts pass into the Tasman, firstly bringing a small bump in S swell Sat building to 2-3ft in the a’noon under SW tending S-SE winds during the day.

Stronger S swell then arrives NYE with size building to 3-4ft o/night and peaking in the morning on Sunday. Winds look OK, with light morning variable winds, tending N’ly in the a’noon.

More action New Years Day with another pulse of long period S swell wrapping in during the a’noon to 3ft and increasing N’ly winds possibly seeing NE windswell build at the same time. 

A trough brings a S-S/SE change Tues with a mixed bag of S’ly groundswell to 3ft and small NE windswell to 2ft.

The trough then develops a fetch adjacent to Tasmania which whips up plenty of local S-S/SE swell Wed into Thurs, provisionally pushing up into the 4ft range at least Wed and holding into Thusrs at similar sizes, although with plenty of wind from the same direction you’ll need to seek protection from the wind. 

Further ahead and a high pressure belt moves over the state bringing settled conditions and easing swells later next week before more cold fronts look to sweep past the state.

Let’s see how it looks on Fri.